The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Club Almagro 41.3%
Draw 33.9%
Atlético de Rafaela 24.8%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
33.7%
34.3%
32%
Our Initial ML Estimation
32.1%
36%
33.6%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Club Almagro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Club Almagro's performance.
Atlético de Rafaela has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Atlético de Rafaela might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Club Almagro than the current prediction. (-9.2%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Club Almagro that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético de Rafaela than the current prediction. (+8.8%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Atlético de Rafaela could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
78.6%
14.3%
7.1%
Club Almagro - Atlético de Rafaela Predictions
Users Predictions:
14 users predict this event. Almagro will win (votes: 11 - 78.6%). Atlético Rafaela will win (votes: 1 - 7.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 14.3%). Confidence interval (95%) for Almagro: 57.1% – 100%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Gonzalez E. (G) 4. Asis G. 10. Bustamante F. 6. Busto L. 8. Bustos J. 11. Macies T. 5. Marchioni J. 9. Martinez E. 7. Orlando J. 3. Silcan E. 2. Vitale J.
1. Bergia M. (G) 9. Albertengo L. 7. Cainelli N. 5. Capurro J. 11. Esparaza Ch. 2. Fernandez G. 8. Flores L. 10. Moreno M. 6. Ramos N. 4. Solveyra A. 3. Wuattier E.
Substitutes
13. Chamorro S. 20. Dornell T. 16. Fernandes J. 15. Laba M. 19. Lopez T. 17. Palacio P. 18. Salto C. 14. Tolosa N. 12. Zozaya J. P. (G)
19. Bonifacio J. 16. Fernandez M. 12. Martinez R. (G) 13. Mondino V. 14. Moscoloni L. 17. Obando A. 18. Pardo M. 15. Pepino E. 20. Quiroga M.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
32', Busto L. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
53', Bustos J. 🟨,
54', Cainelli N. 🟨,
60', Martinez E. ↓, Dornell T. ↑,
60', Bustos J. ↓, Salto C. ↑,
67', Esparza G. ↓, Moscoloni L. ↑,
75', Albertengo L. ↓, Quiroga M. ↑,
83', 1 - 0, Dornell T. ⚽, Salto C. (A),
85', Salto C. 🟨,
86', Cainelli N. ↓, Bonifacio J. ↑,
86', Macies T. ↓, Palacio P. ↑,
86', Orlando J. ↓, Fernandes J. ↑,
90', Bustamante F. ↓, Tolosa N. ↑,
90+1', Moscoloni L. 🟨,
Preview
A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 12 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Almagro won 4.
Almagro is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).
Atlético Rafaela's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
Almagro might have a minor edge in this game.
In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Almagro won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:13. (average 1.3:1.2).
Including home matches between the teams, Almagro won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:2. (average 1.6:0.4).
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Gonzalez E. (G) 
Esparaza Ch. 
Ramos N. 
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