The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Colchester United 42.5%
Draw 28.9%
Exeter City 28.6%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
44.8%
26.5%
28.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
44.8%
26.5%
28.7%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Colchester United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)
Exeter City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Colchester United than the current prediction. (+2.3%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Exeter City than the current prediction. (+0.1%)
Colchester United - Exeter City Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
22. Lo-Tutala T. (G) 2. Hunt R. 5. Tucker J. (C) 24. Terry F. 3. Iandolo E. 6. Digby P. 26. Williams J. 27. Thorn O. 12. Sesay M. 15. Lubala B. 9. Ihionvien B.
1. Bycroft J. (G) 2. Samuel L. 6. Taylor J. 5. Fitzwater J. (C) 3. Woodhouse L. 31. Doyle-Hayes J. 16. Cummins C. 25. Scully A. 8. Perry T. 20. Birch G. 10. Gordon J.
Substitutes
11. Chiwome L. 39. Connolly K. 47. Harvey R. 44. Kuffour S. 4. Perry B. 31. Roberts O. (G) 30. Vincent-Young K.
12. Cole R. 19. Cox S. 24. Harper V. 40. James E. 18. Oakes L. 22. Phillips F. (G) 23. Sutherland E.
Coaches
Cowley D.
Taylor M.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
17', Williams J. 🟨,
39', Fitzwater J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
62', Thorn O. ↓, Harvey R. ↑,
62', Birch G. ↓, Sutherland E. ↑,
62', Scully A. ↓, Cole R. ↑,
62', Perry T. ↓, Cox S. ↑,
66', Cummins C. 🟨,
74', Hunt R. ↓, Vincent-Young K. ↑,
74', Ihionvien B. ↓, Connolly K. ↑,
79', Lubala B. 🟨,
80', Gordon J. ↓, Harper V. ↑,
90+3', Lubala B. ↓, Chiwome L. ↑,
Preview
Crucial home points are at stake for a lower-table team looking to climb out of danger (ranked 19th and 14th).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Colchester won 1.
Colchester is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 0 wins).
Exeter has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
Colchester could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.
A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Colchester holding a narrow advantage.
Confirmed absences for Colchester: Williams J.
(Red Card).
Confirmed absences for Exeter: Cole R.
(Inactive)
Rose D.
(Inactive).
Doubtful / questionable for Colchester: Bishop T.
(Inactive)
Leake J.
(Inactive).
Doubtful / questionable for Exeter: Matthews A.
(Injury).
In the last 15 head-to-head meetings, Colchester has recorded 3 wins, 3 draws, and 9 losses, with a goal aggregate of 15:28 (averaging 1:1.9 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Colchester against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with 13:10 goals (averaging 1.9:1.4 per game).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
8
Exeter
13
5
4
4
10:7
3
19
21
Colchester
12
2
6
4
11:16
-5
12
Outrights of English League Two for now
Exeter: 2.32% Colchester: 1.58%
Last Results with these Odds
Exeter City - the odds 3.23 are the expected chance of winning is 28.71%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.
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Lo-Tutala T. (G) 
Hunt R. 
Williams J. 
Lubala B. 
Doyle-Hayes J. 
Vincent-Young K. 
Harper V. 
James E. 
Sutherland E. 
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