The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Colchester United 25.6%
Draw 28.1%
Exeter City 46.3%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
30.4%
27.7%
41.9%
Our Initial ML Estimation
22.8%
20.8%
55.9%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Colchester United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)
Exeter City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Colchester United than the current prediction. (-2.8%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Exeter City than the current prediction. (+9.6%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Exeter City could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Colchester United - Exeter City Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Preview
Outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 20 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ League One).
Colchester has the most likely position - 20 (7.63%), has project points - 56, has currently - 17, has a small chance of relegated (7%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (7%), has a very small chance of promoted (3%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).
Exeter has the most likely position - 1 (15.51%), has project points - 78, has currently - 32, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (32%), has a chance of promoted (49%), has a chance of win league (16%).
Recent matches Colchester is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
Exeter is in a marvelous shape and in addition in the last match got series victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).
Colchester could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
Recently Exeter have a series of home games.
Exeter will have a poor advantage in this game.
Last 12 head-to-head matches Colchester won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 12-25.
Including matches at home between the teams Colchester won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 10-9.