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Current Win Probability
Exeter City 25.2%
Draw 25.6%
Oxford United 49.2%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
21.9%
24.8%
53.3%
Our Initial ML Estimation
21.4%
24.2%
54.6%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Exeter City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)
Oxford United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Exeter City than the current prediction. (-3.8%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oxford United than the current prediction. (+5.4%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Oxford United could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Exeter City - Oxford United Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
22. Phillips F. (G) 2. Samuel L. 5. Fitzwater J. (C) 3. Woodhouse L. 46. Cayless L. 14. Kite H. 16. Cummins C. 18. Oakes L. 8. Perry T. 20. Birch G. 10. Gordon J.
1. Cumming J. (G) 37. Elliott-Wheeler A. 25. Golding J. 2. Long S. 26. Currie J. 44. Bradney H. 8. Brannagan C. (C) 20. Lynch L. 32. Sibley L. 23. Dembele S. 19. O'Donkor G.
Substitutes
43. Alsop T. 1. Bycroft J. (G) 42. Lang B. 25. Scully A. 6. Taylor J. 21. Watts D.
11. Goodrham T. 48. Griffiths L. 30. Kioso P. 22. Leigh G. 41. Marriott M. (G) 57. Missanga M. 27. Snowden L.
Coaches
Taylor M.
Ramsey A.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (2 - 1)
7', 1 - 0, Perry T. ⚽, Oakes L. (A),
13', Oakes L. 🟨,
28', Golding J. 🟨,
30', 1 - 1, Bradney H. ⚽,
31', 2 - 1, Gordon J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Dembele S. ↓, Missanga M. ↑,
51', Kite H. 🟨,
58', Lynch L. ↓, Kioso P. ↑,
59', Currie J. ↓, Leigh G. ↑,
59', Brannagan C. ↓, Goodrham T. ↑,
61', Perry T. ↓, Scully A. ↑,
66', Samuel L. ↓, Taylor J. ↑,
71', Elliott-Wheeler A. ↓, Snowden L. ↑,
73', Birch G. ↓, Alsop T. ↑,
73', Gordon J. ↓, Lang B. ↑,
73', Kite H. ↓, Watts D. ↑,
78', 2 - 2, Fitzwater J. (Own goal),
90+2', Alsop T. 🟨,
90+2', Sibley L. 🟨,
Penalties (4 - 3)
1, Scully A. (Penalty Awarded),
1, O'Donkor G. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Cummins C. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Sibley L. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Woodhouse L. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Bradney H. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Fitzwater J. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Snowden L. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Cayless L. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Golding J. (Penalty Awarded),
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Exeter won 2.
Recent results have been tough for Exeter (last 5 matches: 1 win).
Oxford is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
Exeter may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.
A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Oxford holding a narrow advantage.
In the last 15 head-to-head meetings, Exeter has recorded 4 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, with a goal aggregate of 18:29 (averaging 1.2:1.9 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Exeter against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, with 10:15 goals (averaging 1.3:1.9 per game).
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Phillips F. (G) 
Cummins C. 
Dembele S. 
Watts D. 
Kioso P. 
Leigh G. 
