Match Info

Liga 2 - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 5 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Max Augustín (Iquitos)


	Comerciantes Belén		Universidad César Vallejo

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.2	3.2
	1.95	3.16	3.81
	2	3.14	3.57
	2.1	3.25	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↑ (1.5)	3.19 ↓ (3.75)	3.46 ↓ (5.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Comerciantes Belén
45%

Draw
28.6%

Universidad César Vallejo
26.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60%

24%

16.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.7%

23.7%

15.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Comerciantes Belén has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Comerciantes Belén's form might have worsened.

Universidad César Vallejo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Universidad César Vallejo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Comerciantes Belén than the current prediction. (+15.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Comerciantes Belén, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Universidad César Vallejo than the current prediction. (-10.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Universidad César Vallejo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Comerciantes Belén - Universidad César Vallejo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Silva L. (G) 22. Aburto B. 3. Catashunga J. 19. Dominguez J. 32. Flores A. 10. Lemos M. 2. Mifflin L. 31. Navarro J. 21. Pereira G. 33. Valdeblanquez J. 16. Valverde M.	12. Rabines M. (G) 72. Ascues A. 31. Caballero E. 21. Cavero S. 8. Cornejo M. 5. Da Rosa F. 15. Grandez G. 17. Morales J. (C) 27. Quispe J. 11. Rojas Castilla A. S. 4. Romero A.
Substitutes
34. Bosmediano J. 27. Ferreira P. 8. Flores L. 26. Guevara R. 73. Montalvo D. (G) 5. Pinedo D. 30. Tuesta J. 18. Vasquez J. 9. Zambrano J.	9. Carando D. 28. Correa M. 77. Cortez J. 14. Requena P. 50. Sanchez S. 90. Succar A. 30. Vargas J. (G) 18. Vasquez D. 16. Villamarin J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
29', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
60', 🟨,
64', 🟨,
82', 🟨,
82', 🟥,
Penalties (2 - 4)
1, (Pen),
1, (Pen),
2, (Pen),
2, (Pen),
3, (Pen),
3, (Pen),
4, (Pen),
4, (Pen),

Preview

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Comerciantes could have a small edge in this match.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Comerciantes Belén
Peruvian Liga 2
21.09.25	Santos - Comerciantes Belén	0:0 ✺
07.09.25	Comerciantes Belén - San Marcos	6:0 ✺
30.08.25	ADA Jaén - Comerciantes Belén	2:2 ✺
24.08.25	Comerciantes Belén - Unión Comercio	0:1 ✺
16.08.25	Comerciantes Belén - Santos	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 TWTLW
- Universidad César Vallejo
Peruvian Liga 2
21.09.25	Universidad César Vallejo - Moquegua	1:1 ✺
14.09.25	Bentín Tacna Heroica - Universidad César Vallejo	1:2 ✺
31.08.25	Universidad César Vallejo - Carlos A. Mannucci	3:2 ✺
23.08.25	Cajamarca - Universidad César Vallejo	2:0 ✺
17.08.25	Moquegua - Universidad César Vallejo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 TWWLL

Upcoming Matches