Match Info

Date: 17 September 2022, Saturday

Location: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia (Como)

Referee: Rutella D. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	SportKlub
Croatia	SportKlub
Italy	Sky Sport
Serbia	SportKlub
Slovenia	SportKlub


	Como		SPAL

	1	X	2
	2.37	3.4	2.7	Watch
	2.35	3.4	2.85
	2.35	3.3	2.9
	2.45	3.25	2.75
	2.49	3.41	3.01
	2.43	3.28	2.9	Watch
	2.4	3.3	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.41 ↓ (2.6)	3.33 ↑ (3.1)	2.83 ↑ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Como
38.9%

Draw
28.1%

SPAL
33.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.9%

30.1%

34%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.1%

31.1%

32.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Como has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

SPAL has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Como than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for SPAL than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	56.2%	18.7%

Como - SPAL Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Como will win (votes: 4 - 25%). SPAL will win (votes: 3 - 18.8%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 56.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 32% – 80.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Como has the most likely position - 20 (16.11%), has project points - 40, has currently - 2, has a chance of relegated (47%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (10%), has a very small chance of promoted (2%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

SPAL has the most likely position - 8 (6.44%), has project points - 52, has currently - 8, has a small chance of relegated (14%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (33%), has a small chance of promoted (11%), has a very small chance of win league (2%).

This event has small quality 30, importance 33, match rating 31. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Como is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches SPAL is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Como won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Como won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Calcio Como
Italian Serie B
10.09.22	Como - Südtirol-Alto Adige	0:2 ✺
03.09.22	Frosinone - Como	2:0 ✺
29.08.22	Como - Brescia	0:1 ✺
21.08.22	Pisa - Como	2:2 ✺
13.08.22	Como - Cagliari	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LLLTT
- SPAL 2013
Italian Serie B
11.09.22	SPAL - Venezia	2:0 ✺
03.09.22	Bari - SPAL	2:2 ✺
27.08.22	SPAL - Cagliari	1:0 ✺
20.08.22	Ascoli - SPAL	1:1 ✺
14.08.22	SPAL - Reggina	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 WTWTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
05.03.22	Como - SPAL	0:2
24.10.21	SPAL - Como	1:1
Coppa Italia Serie C
25.02.15	Como - SPAL	0:0
11.02.15	SPAL - Como	0:2

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