Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 1

Date: 10 September 2026, Thursday

Location: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia (Como)

Referee: Gozubuyuk S. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, Q Arena Asia
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	Como		RB Leipzig

	1	X	2
	1.7	4.2	4.33
	1.68	4.20	4.50
	1.75	4.05	4.5
	1.74	4.26	4.7
	1.72	4.16	4.45	Watch
	1.69	4.15	4.65
	1.79	4.27	4.52
	1.73	4.3	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↓ (2.14)	4.2 ↑ (3.65)	4.51 ↑ (3.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Como
55.8%

Draw
22.9%

RB Leipzig
21.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.6%

26.1%

29.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.2%

27%

28.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Como has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Como's performance.

RB Leipzig has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and RB Leipzig might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Como than the current prediction. (-9.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Como that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for RB Leipzig than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that RB Leipzig could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75.3%	11.1%	13.6%

Como - RB Leipzig Predictions

Users Predictions: 80 users predict this event. Como will win (votes: 60 - 75%). RB Leipzig will win (votes: 11 - 13.8%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 11.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Como: 65.5% – 84.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Como (votes: 6 - 46.2%). RB Leipzig (votes: 4 - 30.8%). Tie (votes: 3 - 23.1%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2 - Como (3.99) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (1.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.46) (votes: 3 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DC - Como (1.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - under (2.23) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

BTTS - yes (1.50) (votes: 92%) ⭐ Best Value.

BTTS - Como & Yes (3.70) (votes: 79%) ⭐ Best Value.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Como (votes: 8 - 53.3%). RB Leipzig (votes: 4 - 26.7%). Tie (votes: 3 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Butez J. (G) 27. Couto Y. 4. Ramon J. 99. Chalobah T. 3. Valle A. 7. Da Cunha L. (C) 6. Milla L. 11. Diao A. 10. Paz N. 20. Baturina M. 9. Douvikas A.	26. Vandevoordt M. (G) 17. Baku R. 4. Orban W. 23. Lukeba C. 22. Raum D. (C) 30. Maksimovic A. 21. El Aynaoui N. 13. Seiwald N. 7. Nusa A. 9. Guiu M. 28. Nkunku C.
Substitutes
13. Dossena A. 12. Ginelli L. (G) 16. Kaiki 90. Kean M. 2. Kempf M. O. 30. Liberali M. 5. Perrone M. 21. Ricci S. 17. Rodriguez J. 97. Sanchez R. (G) 28. Smolcic I.	11. Bakayoko J. 6. Banzuzi E. 3. Esteve M. 35. Finkgrafe M. 27. Gomis T. 10. Gruda B. 39. Henrichs B. 37. Kaltefleiter B. 16. Klostermann L. 1. Nyland O. (G) 8. Ouedraogo A. 40. Romulo Cardoso
Coaches
Fabregas C.	Demichelis M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
2', Orban W. 🟨,
15', 1 - 0, Baturina M. ⚽,
24', Nkunku C. 🟨,
38', 2 - 0, Douvikas A. ⚽, Baturina M. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
47', Paz N. 🟨,
54', 3 - 0, Diao A. ⚽, Paz N. (A),
58', 3 - 1, Maksimovic A. ⚽, Nkunku C. (A),
60', Seiwald N. ↓, Gomis T. ↑,
60', Guiu M. ↓, Ouedraogo A. ↑,
60', Nkunku C. ↓, Banzuzi E. ↑,
64', Banzuzi E. 🟨,
65', Douvikas A. ↓, Kean M. ↑,
65', Da Cunha L. ↓, Perrone M. ↑,
65', Baturina M. ↓, Kempf M. O. ↑,
70', Maksimovic A. ↓, Gruda B. ↑,
74', Couto Y. ↓, Smolcic I. ↑,
86', Diao A. ↓, Ricci S. ↑,
88', Baku R. ↓, Henrichs B. ↑,
90', 4 - 1, Perrone M. ⚽, Paz N. (A),
90+4', Perrone M. 🟨,

Preview

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Recently, Como has had a series of away games.

In this match, Como is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Como: Addai J. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Caqueret M. (Off the roster) Goldaniga E. (Off the roster) Kambwala W. (Off the roster) Lahdo A. (Off the roster) Vigorito M. (Off the roster)

There will not play in RB Leipzig: Baumgartner C. (Thigh Injury) Gebel V. (Knee Injury) Kone A. (Off the roster) Reitz R. (Muscle Injury) Zingerle L. (Off the roster)

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Outrights of UEFA Champions League for now

Como: 1.14% RB Leipzig: 0.79%

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Como	1	1	0	0	4:1	3	3
32	RB Leipzig	1	0	0	1	1:4	-3	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Calcio Como
Italian Serie A
04.09.26	Genoa - Como	1:4 ✺
30.08.26	Napoli - Como	1:2 ✺
22.08.26	Udinese - Como	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
16.08.26	Liverpool - Como	2:0 ✺
16.08.26	Liverpool - Como	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WWTLT
- RB Leipzig
German Bundesliga
05.09.26	Werder Bremen - RB Leipzig	3:1 ✺
29.08.26	RB Leipzig - Borussia Mönchengladbach	3:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
22.08.26	Eintracht Trier - RB Leipzig	0:6 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Bayern Munich - RB Leipzig	3:1 ✺
01.08.26	RB Leipzig - Verl	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LWWLW

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