Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 6

Date: 19 May 2025, Monday

Location: Estádio Estadual Lourival Baptista (Aracaju)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Nosso Futebol+, Sky+, Zapping


	Confiança		Londrina

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.05	3	3.3
	2.42	3	2.85	Watch
	2.25	3.1	3.46
	2.56	2.97	2.96	Watch
	2.38	3	2.8
	2.41	3.02	2.76	Watch
	2.42	3	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 ↑ (2)	3.01 ↓ (3.45)	3 ↓ (3.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Confiança
38.9%

Draw
30.4%

Londrina
30.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.9%

26.6%

27.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.9%

26.6%

27.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Confiança has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Confiança's form might have worsened.

Londrina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Confiança than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Confiança, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Londrina than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	14.3%	14.3%

Confiança - Londrina Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Confiança will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Londrina will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Confiança (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Confiança (1.36) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Confiança (votes: 3 - 60%). Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Allan (G) 16. Alan Cardoso 8. Dionisio (C) 4. Eduardo Moura 11. Felipe Clemente 10. Geovane 3. Maicon 9. Neto Oliveira 7. Ronald Camarao 2. Valdir Junior 5. Vitinho	1. Luiz Daniel (G) 5. Alison 3. Caio Rodrigues 9. Edson Carius 10. Gustavo Franca 7. Henrique 11. Iago Teles 2. Joao Vitor 8. Lucas Marques 6. Mauricio Junior 4. Wallace (C)
Substitutes
6. Airton 18. Breiner C. 17. Fabricio Pereira 12. Felipe Scheibig (G) 23. Gabriel Fontes 20. Luiz Otavio 15. Matheus Blade 22. Rafinha 13. Renilson 21. Rodriguinho 19. Thiago Santos 14. Weriton	14. Cedric 12. Elzo Neto (G) 22. Gabriel Canela 19. Kaique 15. Marco Antonio 18. Paredes M. 16. Rafael Soares 21. Thauan 20. Vitinho 13. Yago Lincoln 17. Ze Breno
Coaches
Luizinho Vieira	Claudinei Oliveira

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
4', 0 - 1, Mauricio Junior ⚽,
32', Neto Oliveira ↓, Breiner C. ↑,
33', Iago Teles 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Geovane ↓, Luiz Otavio ↑,
56', Eduardo Moura 🟨,
59', Henrique ↓, Gabriel Canela ↑,
60', Luiz Daniel ↓, Elzo Neto ↑,
67', Luizinho Vieira 🟥,
70', Edson Carius ↓, Vitinho ↑,
70', Gustavo Franca ↓, Kaique ↑,
72', Mauricio Junior 🟨,
77', Felipe Clemente ↓, Thiago Santos ↑,
77', Alan Cardoso ↓, Fabricio Pereira ↑,
80', Alison 🟨,
83', Lucas Marques ↓, Ze Breno ↑,
86', 0 - 2, Vitinho ⚽, Iago Teles (A),
90+8', Kaique ↓, Thauan ↑,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie D and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: )).

Confiança has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Londrina is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Confiança may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Confiança won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:4. (average 0.2:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Confiança won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3. (average 0.3:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Confiança Aracaju
Brazilian Serie C
10.05.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Confiança	2:0 ✺
03.05.25	Maringá - Confiança	3:2 ✺
26.04.25	Confiança - Ponte Preta	1:2 ✺
20.04.25	Confiança - Caxias	2:1 ✺
12.04.25	Botafogo PB - Confiança	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LLLWL
- Londrina EC
Brazilian Serie C
11.05.25	Londrina - Tombense	1:1 ✺
05.05.25	São Bernardo - Londrina	0:0 ✺
26.04.25	Londrina - Maringá	1:1 ✺
20.04.25	Floresta - Londrina	0:2 ✺
14.04.25	Londrina - Ypiranga	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 TTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
22.04.24	Confiança - Londrina	1:1
Brazilian Serie B
30.10.21	Confiança - Londrina	0:2
20.07.21	Londrina - Confiança	0:0
Brazilian Serie C
18.10.15	Londrina - Confiança	1:0
04.10.15	Confiança - Londrina	0:0

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