Match Info

EUROPE: Conference League - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 6 March 2025, Thursday

Location: Parken Stadium (Copenhagen)

Referee: Kabakov G. (Bul)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, SuperSport Football, SuperSport Maximo 3
Albania	SuperSport 5
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 6
Belgium	VOOsport World 2
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 3
Brazil	Caze TV
Bulgaria	BTV Action, Voyo
Canada	DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
China	iQIYI
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7
Czech-republic	Sport 2
Denmark	Disney+
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport 1
France	Canal+ Live 5
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2, Silk Sport 2
Germany	RTL+
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 6
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, Now Player
Iceland	Viaplay
India	JioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 5
Indonesia	beIN Connect, Vidio
Israel	Sport 4
Malaysia	beIN Connect
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Mexico	Claro Sports, Fox Sports
Montenegro	Arena Sport 3
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 6
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport 3
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect
Poland	Polsat Sport Premium 5
Portugal	DAZN 3
Romania	Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 5
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 3
South-africa	SuperSport Football
South-america	ViX Latin America
South-korea	SPOTV Prime+
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 7
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 6, Blue Sport 6
Thailand	beIN Sports 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 4
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	ON Plus
World	Disney+


	Copenhagen		Chelsea

	1	X	2
	5.75	3.9	1.57
	5.25	3.8	1.55
	5.5	4	1.6	Watch
	5.71	4.1	1.59
	5.57	3.86	1.63	Watch
	5.6	4.38	1.59
	5.5	4	1.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.55 ↑ (4.45)	4.01 ↑ (3.94)	1.59 ↓ (1.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Copenhagen
17%

Draw
23.6%

Chelsea
59.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.3%

24%

54.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.3%

26.5%

60.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Copenhagen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Chelsea has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Copenhagen than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chelsea than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.5%	7.9%	82.5%

Copenhagen - Chelsea Predictions

Users Predictions: Chelsea will win (51 of 58 users predict this - 87.93%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.55% – 96.31%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Ramaj D. (G) 2. Diks K. 5. Gabriel Pereira 6. Hatzidiakos P. 24. Meling B. 22. Gocholeishvili G. 36. Clem W. 17. Froholdt V. 30. Achouri E. 7. Claesson V. (C) 19. Chiakha A.	1. Sanchez R. (G) 27. Gusto M. 23. Chalobah T. 4. Adarabioyo T. 5. Badiashile B. 24. James R. (C) 25. Caicedo M. 20. Palmer C. 22. Dewsbury-Hall K. 32. George T. 76. Mheuka S.
Substitutes
33. Falk R. 4. Garananga M. 13. Huescas R. 15. Lopez M. 8. Mattsson M. 48. Nemeth H. 16. Robert 31. Runarsson R. A. (G) 1. Trott N. (G)	34. Acheampong J. 39. Amougou M. 47. Bergstrom L. (G) 6. Colwill L. 3. Cucurella M. 8. Fernandez E. 12. Jorgensen F. (G) 7. Neto P. 18. Nkunku C. 19. Sancho J.
Coaches
Neestrup J.	Maresca E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
25', Gusto M. ↓, Cucurella M. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Badiashile B. ↓, Colwill L. ↑,
46', Mheuka S. ↓, Nkunku C. ↑,
46', Caicedo M. ↓, Fernandez E. ↑,
47', 0 - 1, James R. ⚽, Cucurella M. (A),
65', Claesson V. ↓, Mattsson M. ↑,
65', Achouri E. ↓, Robert ↑,
65', 0 - 2, Fernandez E. ⚽, George T. (A),
70', Meling B. ↓, Lopez M. ↑,
70', Gocholeishvili G. ↓, Huescas R. ↑,
72', Palmer C. ↓, Sancho J. ↑,
76', Diks K. 🟨,
79', Diks K. ↓, Garananga M. ↑,
80', 1 - 2, Gabriel Pereira ⚽, Lopez M. (A),
87', James R. 🟨,
87', Chiakha A. 🟨,
90', Lopez M. 🟨,
90+1', Hatzidiakos P. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

Copenhagen is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Chelsea is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Copenhagen could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Chelsea is a favorite.

There will not play in Copenhagen: Bardghji R. (Knee Injury) Boilesen N. (Knee Injury) Cornelius A. (Injury) Hojer O. (Surgery)

There will not play in Chelsea: Badiashile B. (Thigh Injury) Guiu M. (Muscle Injury) Jackson N. (Thigh Injury) Kellyman O. (Muscle Injury) Lavia R. (Thigh Injury) Madueke N. (Muscle Injury) Mudryk M. (Suspended)

There are questionable in Copenhagen: Larsson J. (Injury)

There are questionable in Chelsea: Chalobah T. (Back Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Copenhagen
Danish Superliga
02.03.25	Aalborg BK - Copenhagen	0:0 ✺
23.02.25	Copenhagen - Midtjylland	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
20.02.25	Heidenheim - Copenhagen	1:3 ET ✺
Danish Superliga
17.02.25	Randers FC - Copenhagen	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
13.02.25	Copenhagen - Heidenheim	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 TWWWL
- Chelsea
English Premier League
25.02.25	Chelsea - Southampton	4:0 ✺
22.02.25	Aston Villa - Chelsea	2:1 ✺
14.02.25	Brighton & Hove Albion - Chelsea	3:0 ✺
English FA Cup
08.02.25	Brighton & Hove Albion - Chelsea	2:1 ✺
English Premier League
03.02.25	Chelsea - West Ham United	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 WLLLW

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