Match Info

Premier League - Round 29

Date: 4 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: Villa Park (Birmingham)

Referee: Gillett J. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, Supersport Action
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	Aston Villa		Chelsea

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.4	2.55
	2.6	3.6	2.5
	2.7	3.45	2.62
	2.71	3.55	2.66
	2.68	3.56	2.58	Watch
	2.7	3.3	2.5
	2.72	3.52	2.64	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.68 ↑ (2.67)	3.48 ↓ (3.79)	2.58 ↑ (2.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aston Villa
35.6%

Draw
27.4%

Chelsea
37%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36%

25.3%

38.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.7%

25.8%

38%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aston Villa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Chelsea has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chelsea than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
19.7%	53%	27.3%

Aston Villa - Chelsea Predictions

Users Predictions: 65 users predict this event. Aston Villa will win (votes: 13 - 20%). Chelsea will win (votes: 18 - 27.7%). It will Tie (votes: 34 - 52.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 40.2% – 64.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. Aston Villa (votes: 2 - 12.5%). Chelsea (votes: 6 - 37.5%). Tie (votes: 8 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 8 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Chelsea (1.87) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

AH -0.25 - Chelsea (2.14) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Chelsea (1.45) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 7 - 87.5%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 21 Selected Experts predict this event. Aston Villa (votes: 3 - 14.3%). Chelsea (votes: 10 - 47.6%). Tie (votes: 8 - 38.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Martinez E. (G) 2. Cash M. 4. Konsa E. (C) 5. Mings T. 22. Maatsen I. 24. Onana A. 21. Douglas Luiz 31. Bailey L. 27. Rogers M. 10. Buendia E. 11. Watkins O.	12. Jorgensen F. (G) 27. Gusto M. 29. Fofana W. 23. Chalobah T. 21. Hato J. 24. James R. (C) 25. Caicedo M. 10. Palmer C. 8. Fernandez E. 49. Garnacho A. 20. Joao Pedro
Substitutes
18. Abraham T. 47. Alysson 6. Barkley R. 40. Bizot M. (G) 26. Bogarde L. 12. Digne L. 3. Lindelof V. 19. Sancho J. 14. Torres P.	4. Adarabioyo T. 17. Andrey Santos 5. Badiashile B. 3. Cucurella M. 9. Delap L. 38. Guiu M. 45. Lavia R. 1. Sanchez R. (G) 19. Sarr M.
Coaches
Emery U.	Rosenior L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
2', 1 - 0, Douglas Luiz ⚽, Bailey L. (A),
32', Cash M. 🟨,
35', 1 - 1, Joao Pedro ⚽, Gusto M. (A),
45+6', 1 - 2, Joao Pedro ⚽, Fernandez E. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Cash M. ↓, Bogarde L. ↑,
54', Joao Pedro 🟨,
55', 1 - 3, Palmer C. ⚽, Joao Pedro (A),
58', Rogers M. 🟨,
58', Fernandez E. 🟨,
63', Buendia E. ↓, Sancho J. ↑,
63', Douglas Luiz ↓, Barkley R. ↑,
63', Bailey L. ↓, Alysson ↑,
64', 1 - 4, Joao Pedro ⚽, Garnacho A. (A),
68', Watkins O. 🟨,
72', Watkins O. ↓, Abraham T. ↑,
75', Gusto M. ↓, Lavia R. ↑,
79', Fofana W. ↓, Adarabioyo T. ↑,
79', Fernandez E. ↓, Cucurella M. ↑,
85', Joao Pedro ↓, Delap L. ↑,
85', Palmer C. ↓, Andrey Santos ↑,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 6).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aston Villa won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Aston Villa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Aston Villa won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 19:34. (average 1:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Aston Villa won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 10:20. (average 1.1:2.2).

Outrights of English Premier League for now

Chelsea: 5.13% Aston Villa: 0.7%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Chelsea	5	2	1	2	10:12	-2	7
16	Aston Villa	5	1	1	3	4:9	-5	4

Last Results with these Odds

Aston Villa - the odds 2.67 are the expected chance of winning is 35.96%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aston Villa
English Premier League
27.02.26	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Aston Villa	2:0 ✺
21.02.26	Aston Villa - Leeds United	1:1 ✺
English FA Cup
14.02.26	Aston Villa - Newcastle United	1:3 ✺
English Premier League
11.02.26	Aston Villa - Brighton & Hove Albion	1:0 ✺
07.02.26	Bournemouth - Aston Villa	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LTLWT
- Chelsea
English Premier League
01.03.26	Arsenal - Chelsea	2:1 ✺
21.02.26	Chelsea - Burnley	1:1 ✺
English FA Cup
13.02.26	Hull City - Chelsea	0:4 ✺
English Premier League
10.02.26	Chelsea - Leeds United	2:2 ✺
07.02.26	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Chelsea	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LTWTW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
27.12.25	Chelsea - Aston Villa	1:2
22.02.25	Aston Villa - Chelsea	2:1
01.12.24	Chelsea - Aston Villa	3:0
27.04.24	Aston Villa - Chelsea	2:2
English FA Cup
07.02.24	Aston Villa - Chelsea	1:3
26.01.24	Chelsea - Aston Villa	0:0
English Premier League
24.09.23	Chelsea - Aston Villa	0:1

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