What is the expert prediction for Aston Villa vs Chelsea?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Aston Villa vs Chelsea. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Aston Villa vs Chelsea Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Wednesday, March 04, 2026)

Match Info

Premier League - Round 29

Date: 4 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: Villa Park (Birmingham)

Referee: Gillett J. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, Supersport Action
Albania	SuperSport 4
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1
Azerbaijan	Idman TV
Bangladesh	Toffee Live
Belgium	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 2
Bolivia	ESPN 2, ESPN 5, ESPN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network 6 DRM, FuboTV
China	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	ESPN 2
Croatia	Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 2, Cytavision Sports 2
Czech-republic	CANAL+ Sport, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3+, Viaplay
Ecuador	ESPN 2, ESPN 5
Europe	Go3 Extra Sports Baltic
Finland	Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	CANAL+ France, Canal+ Live 2, Canal+ Live 3, CANAL+ Sport 360
Germany	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport 4, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports 4
Haiti	Tele Haiti
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Premier League 5
Iceland	SÝN Sport 4
India	Disney+ Hotstar
Indonesia	Vidio
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 258
Japan	U-NEXT
Kosovo	SuperSport 4
Malaysia	Astro Go, Astro Premier League 2, Canal+, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 1
Mexico	FOX One, Fox Sports
Myanmar	Canal + Mae Madi, Canal+ Myanmar
Nepal	Kantipur Max
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	SKY Go NZ, Sky Sport 4
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport Premier League 3
Pakistan	ARY ZAP
Paraguay	ESPN 2, ESPN 5
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 2, ESPN 5, ESPN
Philippines	Setanta Sports
Poland	Canal+ Extra 1, Canal+ Extra 5
Portugal	DAZN 4, DAZN / App, DAZN Portugal
Romania	Voyo
Serbia	Arena Premium 5
Singapore	Hub Premier 3
Slovakia	Voyo
South-africa	SuperSport Action
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN 3, DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 2
Tajikistan	Futbol TV
Thailand	AIS PLAY
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
Ukraine	Pershiy
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 3
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	NBC Sports App, NBC Universo, NBC, Peacock TV Premium, Peacock, USA Network
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 2, ESPN 5, Inter
Vietnam	FPT Play


	Aston Villa		Chelsea

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.4	2.55
	2.6	3.6	2.5
	2.7	3.45	2.62
	2.71	3.55	2.66
	2.68	3.56	2.58	Watch
	2.7	3.3	2.5
	2.72	3.52	2.64	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.68 ↑ (2.67)	3.48 ↓ (3.79)	2.58 ↑ (2.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aston Villa
35.6%

Draw
27.4%

Chelsea
37%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36%

25.3%

38.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.7%

25.8%

38%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aston Villa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Chelsea has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chelsea than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
19.7%	53%	27.3%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 65 users predict this event. Aston Villa will win (votes: 13 - 20%). Chelsea will win (votes: 18 - 27.7%). It will Tie (votes: 34 - 52.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 40.2% – 64.4%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 16 high ROI users predict this event. Aston Villa (votes: 2 - 12.5%). Chelsea (votes: 6 - 37.5%). Tie (votes: 8 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

BTTS - yes (votes: 8 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Chelsea (1.87) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

AH 0 - Chelsea (1.92) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH +0.25 - Chelsea (2.14) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Chelsea (1.45) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 7 - 87.5%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 23 high ROI users predict this event. Aston Villa (votes: 3 - 13%). Chelsea (votes: 12 - 52.2%). Tie (votes: 8 - 34.8%).

Score Prediction (the most likely result by bookmakers): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Martinez E. (G) 2. Cash M. 4. Konsa E. (C) 5. Mings T. 22. Maatsen I. 24. Onana A. 21. Douglas Luiz 31. Bailey L. 27. Rogers M. 10. Buendia E. 11. Watkins O.	12. Jorgensen F. (G) 27. Gusto M. 29. Fofana W. 23. Chalobah T. 21. Hato J. 24. James R. (C) 25. Caicedo M. 10. Palmer C. 8. Fernandez E. 49. Garnacho A. 20. Joao Pedro
Substitutes
18. Abraham T. 47. Alysson 6. Barkley R. 40. Bizot M. (G) 26. Bogarde L. 12. Digne L. 3. Lindelof V. 19. Sancho J. 14. Torres P.	4. Adarabioyo T. 17. Andrey Santos 5. Badiashile B. 3. Cucurella M. 9. Delap L. 38. Guiu M. 45. Lavia R. 1. Sanchez R. (G) 19. Sarr M.
Coaches
Emery U.	Rosenior L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
2', 1 - 0, Douglas Luiz ⚽, Bailey L. (A),
32', Cash M. 🟨,
35', 1 - 1, Joao Pedro ⚽, Gusto M. (A),
45+6', 1 - 2, Joao Pedro ⚽, Fernandez E. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Cash M. ↓, Bogarde L. ↑,
54', Joao Pedro 🟨,
55', 1 - 3, Palmer C. ⚽, Joao Pedro (A),
58', Rogers M. 🟨,
58', Fernandez E. 🟨,
63', Buendia E. ↓, Sancho J. ↑,
63', Douglas Luiz ↓, Barkley R. ↑,
63', Bailey L. ↓, Alysson ↑,
64', 1 - 4, Joao Pedro ⚽, Garnacho A. (A),
68', Watkins O. 🟨,
72', Watkins O. ↓, Abraham T. ↑,
75', Gusto M. ↓, Lavia R. ↑,
79', Fofana W. ↓, Adarabioyo T. ↑,
79', Fernandez E. ↓, Cucurella M. ↑,
85', Joao Pedro ↓, Delap L. ↑,
85', Palmer C. ↓, Andrey Santos ↑,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 6).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aston Villa won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Aston Villa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Aston Villa won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 19:34. (average 1:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Aston Villa won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 10:20. (average 1.1:2.2).

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Outrights of English Premier League for now

Aston Villa: 0.04%

Standings

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Aston Villa	31	16	6	9	42:37	5	54
6	Chelsea	31	13	9	9	53:38	15	48

Last Results with these Odds

Aston Villa - the odds 2.67 are the expected chance of winning is 35.96%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Chelsea - the odds 2.48 are the expected chance of winning is 38.71%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aston Villa
English Premier League
27.02.26	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Aston Villa	2:0 ✺
21.02.26	Aston Villa - Leeds United	1:1 ✺
English FA Cup
14.02.26	Aston Villa - Newcastle United	1:3 ✺
English Premier League
11.02.26	Aston Villa - Brighton & Hove Albion	1:0 ✺
07.02.26	Bournemouth - Aston Villa	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LTLWT
- Chelsea
English Premier League
01.03.26	Arsenal - Chelsea	2:1 ✺
21.02.26	Chelsea - Burnley	1:1 ✺
English FA Cup
13.02.26	Hull City - Chelsea	0:4 ✺
English Premier League
10.02.26	Chelsea - Leeds United	2:2 ✺
07.02.26	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Chelsea	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LTWTW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
27.12.25	Chelsea - Aston Villa	1:2
22.02.25	Aston Villa - Chelsea	2:1
01.12.24	Chelsea - Aston Villa	3:0
27.04.24	Aston Villa - Chelsea	2:2
English FA Cup
07.02.24	Aston Villa - Chelsea	1:3
26.01.24	Chelsea - Aston Villa	0:0
English Premier League
24.09.23	Chelsea - Aston Villa	0:1

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