Match Info

Premier League - Round 34

Date: 21 April 2026, Tuesday

Location: Amex Stadium (Brighton)

Referee: Pawson C. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Brighton & Hove Albion		Chelsea

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.4	2.75
	2.5	3.6	2.75
	2.53	3.7	2.8
	2.56	3.7	2.7	Watch
	2.45	3.5	2.63
	2.57	3.7	2.81	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.52 ↑ (2.44)	3.6 ↓ (3.63)	2.74 ↑ (2.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brighton & Hove Albion
38.2%

Draw
26.7%

Chelsea
35.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.6%

26%

35.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.7%

26.6%

36.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brighton & Hove Albion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Chelsea has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brighton & Hove Albion than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chelsea than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	27.3%	6.1%

Brighton & Hove Albion - Chelsea Predictions

Users Predictions: 33 users predict this event. Brighton & Hove will win (votes: 22 - 66.7%). Chelsea will win (votes: 2 - 6.1%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Brighton & Hove: 50.6% – 82.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Brighton & Hove (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Chelsea (2.20) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Brighton & Hove (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Chelsea (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Verbruggen B. (G) 27. Wieffer M. 6. van Hecke J. P. 21. Boscagli O. 24. Kadioglu F. 17. Baleba C. 30. Gross P. (C) 11. Minteh Y. 13. Hinshelwood J. 22. Mitoma K. 10. Rutter G.	1. Sanchez R. (G) 23. Chalobah T. 29. Fofana W. 21. Hato J. 27. Gusto M. 25. Caicedo M. 45. Lavia R. 3. Cucurella M. 8. Fernandez E. (C) 7. Neto P. 9. Delap L.
Substitutes
26. Ayari Y. 29. De Cuyper M. 5. Dunk L. 3. Igor 19. Kostoulas C. 33. O'Riley M. 23. Steele J. (G) 34. Veltman J. 18. Welbeck D.	34. Acheampong J. 4. Adarabioyo T. 17. Andrey Santos 55. Derry J. 14. Essugo D. 49. Garnacho A. 38. Guiu M. 19. Sarr M. 28. Sharman-Lowe T. (G)
Coaches
Hurzeler F.	Rosenior L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Kadioglu F. ⚽,
45+1', Fofana W. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Fofana W. ↓, Garnacho A. ↑,
46', Wieffer M. ↓, Veltman J. ↑,
56', 2 - 0, Hinshelwood J. ⚽, Rutter G. (A),
58', Minteh Y. 🟨,
72', Delap L. ↓, Guiu M. ↑,
73', Lavia R. ↓, Essugo D. ↑,
77', Minteh Y. ↓, De Cuyper M. ↑,
82', Mitoma K. ↓, Ayari Y. ↑,
83', Rutter G. ↓, Welbeck D. ↑,
90+1', 3 - 0, Welbeck D. ⚽, De Cuyper M. (A),
90+2', Hinshelwood J. ↓, O'Riley M. ↑,
90+2', Gusto M. ↓, Acheampong J. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 9 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Brighton & Hove won 3.

Brighton & Hove is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Chelsea has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, Chelsea has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Brighton & Hove: Gomez D. (Injury) March S. (Muscle Injury) Milner J. (Injury) Tzimas S. (Knee Injury) Webster A. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Chelsea: Colwill L. (Knee Injury) Estêvão (Hamstring Injury) Gittens J. (Muscle Injury) Mudryk M. (Suspended)

There are questionable in Chelsea: James R. (Hamstring Injury) Joao Pedro (Muscle Injury) Jorgensen F. (Groin Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Brighton & Hove won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 28:36. (average 1.4:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Brighton & Hove won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 15:16. (average 1.5:1.6).

Outrights of English Premier League for now

Chelsea: 5.13% Brighton: 2.56%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Brighton	5	3	1	1	16:5	11	10
10	Chelsea	5	2	1	2	10:12	-2	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brighton & Hove Albion
English Premier League
18.04.26	Tottenham Hotspur - Brighton & Hove Albion	2:2 ✺
11.04.26	Burnley - Brighton & Hove Albion	0:2 ✺
21.03.26	Brighton & Hove Albion - Liverpool	2:1 ✺
14.03.26	Sunderland - Brighton & Hove Albion	0:1 ✺
04.03.26	Brighton & Hove Albion - Arsenal	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 TWWWL
- Chelsea
English Premier League
18.04.26	Chelsea - Manchester United	0:1 ✺
12.04.26	Chelsea - Manchester City	0:3 ✺
English FA Cup
04.04.26	Chelsea - Port Vale	7:0 ✺
English Premier League
21.03.26	Everton - Chelsea	3:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
17.03.26	Chelsea - Paris Saint-Germain	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
27.09.25	Chelsea - Brighton & Hove Albion	1:3
14.02.25	Brighton & Hove Albion - Chelsea	3:0
English FA Cup
08.02.25	Brighton & Hove Albion - Chelsea	2:1
English Premier League
28.09.24	Chelsea - Brighton & Hove Albion	4:2
15.05.24	Brighton & Hove Albion - Chelsea	1:2
03.12.23	Chelsea - Brighton & Hove Albion	3:2
English League Cup
27.09.23	Chelsea - Brighton & Hove Albion	1:0

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