Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 20

Date: 26 July 2026, Sunday

Location: Arena Fonte Nova (Salvador)

Referee: Abatti R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Azteca Deportes, Disney+
Turkey	Spor Smart 1
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Bahia		Corinthians

	1	X	2
	2.40	3.20	3.10	Watch
	2.30	3.20	3.20
	2.35	3.25	3.00	Watch
	2.45	3.23	3.27
	4.46	3.18	1.90	Watch
	2.35	3.15	3.20
	2.38	3.24	3.30	Watch
	2.38	3.25	3.20
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.63 ↑ (2.09)	3.21 ↓ (3.32)	3.02 ↓ (3.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bahia
37.2%

Draw
30.5%

Corinthians
32.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.6%

28.1%

27.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bahia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Bahia's form might have worsened.

Corinthians has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Corinthians's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
36.4%	45.5%	18.2%

Bahia - Corinthians Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Bahia will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%). Corinthians will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 45.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 16.1% – 74.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Corinthians (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ronaldo Strada (G) 31. Gomez R. 33. David Duarte 21. Ramos S. 66. Ze Guilherme 7. Ademir 5. Nicolas Acevedo (C) 6. Jean Lucas 11. Rodrigo 9. Veliz A. 16. Erick Pulga	1. Hugo Souza (G) 2. Matheuzinho 3. Gabriel Paulista 13. Gustavo Henrique 26. Angileri F. 14. Raniele 49. Andre 37. Kaio Cesar 8. Garro R. (C) 7. Breno Bidon 9. Yuri Alberto
Substitutes
63. David Martins 27. Everaldo 10. Everton Ribeiro 17. Herrera G. (G) 4. Kanu 57. Kaue Junior 46. Luciano Juba 44. Marcos Victor 15. Michel Araujo 77. Ruan Pablo 23. Sanabria M. 12. Willian Jose	29. Allan 5. Andre Ramalho 19. Carrillo A. 35. Charles Rigon 61. Dieguinho 4. Joao Pedro 51. Kaue (G) 52. Labyad Z. 77. Lingard J. 20. Milans P. 18. Pedro Raul 23. Pereira M.
Coaches
Mucke R.	Diniz F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
8', 0 - 1, Angileri F. ⚽, Andre (A),
16', Angileri F. 🟨,
19', David Duarte 🟨,
28', Ze Guilherme 🟨,
35', Raniele 🟨,
45+4', 1 - 1, David Duarte ⚽, Rodrigo (A),
45+9', Rogerio Ceni 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
67', Breno Bidon 🟨,
69', Ademir ↓, Willian Jose ↑,
69', Veliz A. ↓, Kaue Junior ↑,
69', Ze Guilherme ↓, Luciano Juba ↑,
69', Angileri F. ↓, Milans P. ↑,
70', Breno Bidon ↓, Labyad Z. ↑,
77', Andre ↓, Allan ↑,
77', Raniele ↓, Pereira M. ↑,
77', Jean Lucas ↓, Everton Ribeiro ↑,
85', Yuri Alberto ↓, Carrillo A. ↑,
86', Erick Pulga ↓, Sanabria M. ↑,
89', Kaue 🟨,
90+6', Allan 🟨,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 2.

Bahia is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Corinthians may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Bahia will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Bahia: Leo Vieira (Injury) Moreno M. (Lacking Match Fitness)

There will not play in Corinthians: Depay M. (Rest) Kayke (Knee Injury) Vitinho (Hip Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 26:27. (average 1.3:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Bahia won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:7. (average 1.1:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Bahia	29	12	10	7	43:36	7	46
16	Corinthians	29	8	8	13	30:34	-4	32

Last Results with these Odds

Bahia - the odds 2.09 are the expected chance of winning is 44.65%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Bahia
Brazilian Serie A
21.07.26	Atlético Mineiro - Bahia	1:1 ✺
17.07.26	Bahia - Chapecoense	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
12.07.26	Fluminense - Bahia	2:0 ✺
04.07.26	Bahia - Montevideo City Torque	4:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
30.05.26	Bahia - Botafogo RJ	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 TWLWW
- Corinthians
Brazilian Serie A
23.07.26	Corinthians - Remo	3:0 ✺
Club Friendly
12.07.26	FC Cascavel - Corinthians	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
30.05.26	Grêmio - Corinthians	1:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
27.05.26	Corinthians - Platense	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
24.05.26	Corinthians - Atlético Mineiro	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
28.01.26	Corinthians - Bahia	1:2
16.08.25	Corinthians - Bahia	1:2
30.03.25	Bahia - Corinthians	1:1
03.12.24	Corinthians - Bahia	3:0
21.07.24	Bahia - Corinthians	0:1
24.11.23	Corinthians - Bahia	1:5
22.07.23	Bahia - Corinthians	0:0

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