Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 18

Date: 30 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Arena da Baixada (Curitiba)

Referee: Mendes F. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol
Usa	Fanatiz


	Athletico Paranaense		Mirassol

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.25	4.2	Watch
	1.98	3.2	3.95	Watch
	2.01	3.33	4.42
	1.99	3.3	4.12	Watch
	1.95	3	4
	1.98	3.27	4.32	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 ↑ (1.95)	3.23 ↓ (3.26)	4.17 ↓ (4.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletico Paranaense
48%

Draw
29.3%

Mirassol
22.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.7%

29.2%

22.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53%

31.8%

20.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletico Paranaense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Mirassol has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mirassol than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
82.6%	13%	4.3%

Athletico Paranaense - Mirassol Predictions

Users Predictions: Athletico Paranaense will win (19 of 21 users predict this - 90.48%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.93% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Santos (C) 29. Benavidez G. 33. Aguirre F. 4. Arthur Dias 37. Esquivel L. 16. Jadson 5. Felipinho 26. Claudinho 7. Mendoza S. 10. Zapelli B. 9. Viveros K.	22. Walter (G) 20. Daniel Borges 34. Joao Victor (C) 3. Willian Machado 6. Reinaldo 21. Jose Aldo 8. Denilson 96. Carlos Eduardo 7. Shaylon 77. Alesson 95. Edson Carioca
Substitutes
47. Chiqueti 63. Diogo Riquelme 53. Dudu Kogitzki 2. Gilberto Junior 11. Isaac 8. Joao Cruz 20. Julimar 3. Leo 21. Leozinho 42. Mateus Soares (G) 70. Renan Peixoto 22. Teran C.	23. Alex Muralha (G) 99. Andre Luis 10. Chico Kim 33. Eduardo 2. Lucas Oliveira 25. Neto Moura 90. Thomazella (G) 12. Victor Luis
Coaches
Hellmann O.	Rafael Guanaes

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
31', Edson Carioca 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Zapelli B. ↓, Julimar ↑,
58', Arthur Dias 🟨,
63', Edson Carioca ↓, Andre Luis ↑,
66', Benavidez G. 🟨,
68', Esquivel L. ↓, Joao Cruz ↑,
71', Carlos Eduardo ↓, Eduardo ↑,
71', Denilson ↓, Neto Moura ↑,
72', Willian Machado 🟨,
78', Mendoza S. ↓, Leozinho ↑,
78', Felipinho ↓, Diogo Riquelme ↑,
81', Shaylon ↓, Chico Kim ↑,
81', Jose Aldo ↓, Lucas Oliveira ↑,
83', Arthur Dias ↓, Teran C. ↑,
86', Eduardo 🟨,
88', 1 - 0, Viveros K. ⚽, Joao Cruz (A),

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Athletico PR may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Athletico PR is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Athletico PR: Esquivel L. (Injury) Leo Derik (Injury) Luiz Gustavo (Calf Injury) Portilla J. (International duty) Teran C. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Mirassol: Igor Formiga (Muscle Injury) Negueba (Knee Injury) Neto Moura (Hamstring Injury)

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Outrights of Brazilian Serie A for now

Athletico-PR: 0.33%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Athletico-PR	29	14	8	7	45:34	11	50
15	Mirassol	29	8	9	12	34:43	-9	33

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletico Paranaense
Brazilian Serie A
24.05.26	Remo - Athletico Paranaense	1:2 ✺
17.05.26	Athletico Paranaense - Flamengo	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
14.05.26	Atlético Goianiense - Athletico Paranaense	0:1 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
10.05.26	Vasco da Gama - Athletico Paranaense	1:0 ✺
02.05.26	Athletico Paranaense - Grêmio	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WTWLT
- Mirassol
Copa Libertadores
26.05.26	Lanús - Mirassol	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
23.05.26	Mirassol - Fluminense	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
19.05.26	Always Ready - Mirassol	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
16.05.26	Atlético Mineiro - Mirassol	3:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
13.05.26	Mirassol - Red Bull Bragantino	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18 LWWLW

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