The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Corinthians 47.2%
Draw 30%
Cruzeiro 22.8%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
41.5%
29%
29.5%
Our Initial ML Estimation
43%
30%
28.5%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Corinthians has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Corinthians's performance.
Cruzeiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Cruzeiro might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Corinthians than the current prediction. (-4.2%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cruzeiro than the current prediction. (+5.7%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Cruzeiro could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
60%
20%
20%
Corinthians - Cruzeiro Predictions
Users Predictions:
10 users predict this event. Corinthians will win (votes: 6 - 60%). Cruzeiro will win (votes: 2 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%). Confidence interval (95%) for Corinthians: 29.6% – 90.4%.
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Hugo Souza (G) 2. Matheuzinho 3. Gabriel Paulista 13. Gustavo Henrique 21. Matheus Bidu 19. Carrillo A. 29. Allan 37. Kaio Cesar 8. Garro R. (C) 7. Breno Bidon 18. Pedro Raul
81. Otavio Costa (G) 23. Fagner 43. Joao Marcelo 34. Jonathan Jesus 25. Villalba L. 29. Romero L. (C) 5. Ze Lucas 67. Costa J. 9. Bruno Rodrigues 38. Felipe Morais 19. Kaio Jorge
Substitutes
80. Alex Santana 26. Angileri F. 35. Charles Rigon 61. Dieguinho 56. Gui Negao 4. Joao Pedro 51. Kaue (G) 77. Lingard J. 55. Machado I. 20. Milans P. 23. Pereira M. 14. Raniele
99. Arroyo K. 15. Fabricio Bruno 8. Gerson 2. Kaua Moraes 51. Lamounier V. (G) 16. Lucas Silva 11. Marquinhos 10. Matheus Pereira 97. Rodriguez L. 27. Rojas G. 94. Wanderson 12. William Furtado
Coaches
Diniz F.
Artur Jorge
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
36', 0 - 1, Bruno Rodrigues ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Breno Bidon ↓, Lingard J. ↑,
52', Felipe Morais 🟨,
54', Gabriel Paulista ↓, Joao Pedro ↑,
58', Ze Lucas ↓, Gerson ↑,
58', Kaio Jorge ↓, Matheus Pereira ↑,
58', Felipe Morais ↓, Arroyo K. ↑,
58', 1 - 1, Gustavo Henrique ⚽,
67', Jonathan Jesus 🟨,
70', Pedro Raul ↓, Gui Negao ↑,
70', Bruno Rodrigues ↓, Rodriguez L. ↑,
71', Kaio Cesar ↓, Dieguinho ↑,
79', Costa J. ↓, Wanderson ↑,
80', Carrillo A. ↓, Pereira M. ↑,
82', 1 - 2, Wanderson ⚽, Rodriguez L. (A),
90', Villalba L. 🟨,
90', Rodriguez L. 🟨,
90+1', Garro R. 🟨,
Preview
A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Corinthians won 1.
Corinthians has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Cruzeiro is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Cruzeiro may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Corinthians will hold a modest advantage in this match.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Corinthians won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 21:26. (average 1.1:1.3).
Including home matches between the teams, Corinthians won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:8. (average 1.4:1).
Outrights of Brazilian Serie A for now
Corinthians: 0.85% Cruzeiro: 0.31%
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
5
Cruzeiro
29
14
6
9
44:40
4
48
16
Corinthians
29
8
8
13
30:34
-4
32
Last Results with these Odds
Corinthians - the odds 2.26 are the expected chance of winning is 41.48%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.
Cruzeiro - the odds 3.17 are the expected chance of winning is 29.53%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.
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Hugo Souza (G) 
Carrillo A. 
Garro R. (C) 
Costa J. 
Lingard J. 
Milans P. 
Arroyo K. 
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