Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA SUDAMERICANA - PLAY OFFS - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 11 July 2023, Tuesday

Location: Neo Quimica Arena (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Valenzuela J. (Ven)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	ESPN
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Portugal	Sport TV


	Corinthians		Universitario de Deportes

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.4	5	Watch
	1.78	3.25	4.8
	1.79	3.35	4.8
	1.75	3.42	5.44
	1.75	3	5
	1.76	3.35	5.15	Watch
	1.8	3.3	4.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↑ (1.64)	3.3 ↓ (3.69)	5 ↓ (5.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Corinthians
52.9%

Draw
28.4%

Universitario de Deportes
18.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.6%

25.6%

16.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.5%

24.8%

16.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Corinthians has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Universitario de Deportes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Corinthians than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Corinthians, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Universitario de Deportes than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
53.8%	23.1%	23.1%

Corinthians - Universitario de Deportes Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Corinthians will win (votes: 7 - 53.8%). Uni de Deportes will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 23.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Corinthians: 26.7% – 80.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Carlos Miguel (G) 2. Rafael Ramos 21. Matheus Bidu 25. Bruno Mendez 14. Caetano 26. Biro 20. Giuliano (C) 27. Pedro Henrique 30. Matheus Araujo 41. Felipe Augusto 28. Adson	21. Romero D. (G) 20. Valera A. 3. Riveros W. 5. Di Benedetto M. 29. Corzo A. 24. Polo A. 23. Murrugarra J. 18. Urena R. 36. Quispe Cordova P. A. 14. Bolivar J. 11. Urruti L.
Substitutes
11. Angel Romero 1. Camargo K. 17. Giovane 47. Joao Pedro 13. Leo Mana 32. Matheus Donelli (G) 7. Maycon 16. Meer V. 8. Renato Augusto 29. Roni 46. Santos R.	26. Ancajima H. 4. Barco A. 27. Cabanillas N. 10. Calcaterra H. 12. Calderon J. (G) 77. Celi Y. 8. Flores E. 30. Guzman P. 15. Herrera E. 17. Rivera J. 37. Rojas A. 2. Saravia M.
Coaches
Luxemburgo V.	Fossati J.

Preview

1st leg.

Recent matches Corinthians is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Universitario de Deportes is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Universitario de Deportes could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Corinthians is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Corinthians
Brazilian Serie A
08.07.23	Atlético Mineiro - Corinthians	0:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
05.07.23	América Mineiro - Corinthians	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
02.07.23	Corinthians - Red Bull Bragantino	0:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
28.06.23	Corinthians - Liverpool Montevideo	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
24.06.23	Athletico Paranaense - Corinthians	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 WLLWL
- Universitario de Deportes
Peruvian Liga 1
07.07.23	Cantolao - Universitario de Deportes	1:4 ✺
03.07.23	Universitario de Deportes - Alianza Atlético	2:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
28.06.23	Universitario de Deportes - Gimnasia La Plata	1:0 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
22.06.23	Cienciano - Universitario de Deportes	1:1 ✺
11.06.23	Sport Huancayo - Universitario de Deportes	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WWWTL

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