The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Corinthians 61.7%
Draw 24.1%
Vitória Salvador 14.2%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
56.6%
25.6%
17.9%
Our Initial ML Estimation
52%
23.5%
19.5%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Corinthians has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Corinthians's performance.
Vitória Salvador has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Corinthians than the current prediction. (-9.7%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Corinthians that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitória Salvador than the current prediction. (+5.3%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Vitória Salvador could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
100%
0%
0%
Corinthians - Vitória Salvador Predictions
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
O/U 2 - over (1.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
O/U 3.5 - under (1.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Corinthians will win
(5 of 5 users predict this - 100%). Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Hugo Souza (G) 2. Matheuzinho 3. Gabriel Paulista 13. Gustavo Henrique 26. Angileri F. 49. Andre 7. Breno Bidon 11. Vitinho 8. Garro R. (C) 77. Lingard J. 9. Yuri Alberto
1. Lucas Arcanjo (C) 98. Matheusinho 2. Britez E. 36. Luan Candido 83. Jamerson 95. Caique Goncalves 33. Erick 10. Matheuzinho 6. Emmanuel Martinez 12. Tarzia D. 91. Rene
Substitutes
29. Allan 5. Andre Ramalho 19. Carrillo A. 35. Charles Rigon 61. Dieguinho 56. Gui Negao 4. Joao Pedro 37. Kaio Cesar 51. Kaue (G) 21. Matheus Bidu 20. Milans P. 18. Pedro Raul
9. Alex Bruno 26. Edenilson 23. Fabricio 77. Laquintana I. 20. Lucas Silva 7. Marinho 8. Pochettino T. 16. Ramos R. 79. Renato Kayzer 15. Walace 71. Yuri (G) 88. Ze Vitor
Coaches
Seedorf C.
Jair Ventura
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
45+1', 0 - 1, Rene ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
53', Rene 🟨,
66', 1 - 1, Yuri Alberto (Penalty Awarded),
67', Vitinho ↓, Kaio Cesar ↑,
79', Lingard J. ↓, Matheus Bidu ↑,
80', Andre ↓, Charles Rigon ↑,
80', Matheuzinho ↓, Ze Vitor ↑,
80', Tarzia D. ↓, Lucas Silva ↑,
85', Rene ↓, Fabricio ↑,
90+3', Yuri Alberto ↓, Gui Negao ↑,
90+4', Erick ↓, Laquintana I. ↑,
90+4', Caique Goncalves ↓, Walace ↑,
Preview
Crucial home points are at stake for a lower-table team looking to climb out of danger (ranked 16th and 13th).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Corinthians won 3.
Corinthians is on a difficult losing run (last 5 matches: 0 wins).
Performances by Vitória have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).
In this matchup, Corinthians is considered the favorite to take the win.
Confirmed absences for Corinthians: Depay M.
(Yellow Cards)
Kayke
(Knee Injury)
Labyad Z.
(Knee Injury).
Confirmed absences for Vitória: Baralhas
(Broken Leg)
Caca
(Yellow Cards)
Camutanga
(Broken Leg)
Dudu
(Back Injury)
Edu
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
Fabiano
(Knee Injury)
Nathan Mendes
(Knee Injury)
Ramon
(Leg Injury)
Riccieli
(Calf Injury).
Doubtful / questionable for Vitória: Lucas Silva
(Injury).
Our forecast points to a victory for Vitória in today's match, at odds of 5.52.
In the last 17 head-to-head meetings, Corinthians has recorded 8 wins, 7 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 21:13 (averaging 1.2:0.8 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Corinthians against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with 12:6 goals (averaging 1.5:0.8 per game).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
14
Vitoria
32
10
8
14
35:46
-11
38
18
Corinthians
32
8
9
15
34:42
-8
33
Last Results with these Odds
Vitória Salvador - the odds 5.25 are the expected chance of winning is 17.87%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.
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Hugo Souza (G) 
Angileri F. 
Lingard J. 
Carrillo A. 
Milans P. 
Ramos R. 
Seedorf C. 
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