Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 16 September 2026, Wednesday

Location: Neo Quimica Arena (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Valenzuela J. (Ven)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Serbia	Arena Premium 1
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Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter


	Corinthians		Estudiantes La Plata

	1	X	2
	2.10	2.80	4.50	Watch
	2.10	2.80	4.20
	2.12	2.75	4.20	Watch
	2.19	2.85	4.53
	2.11	2.91	4.36	Watch
	2.16	2.80	4.25
	2.15	2.94	4.23	Watch
	2.16	2.75	4.10
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↑ (1.91)	2.83 ↓ (3.06)	4.3 ↓ (4.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Corinthians
44.4%

Draw
33.6%

Estudiantes La Plata
22.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.4%

30.2%

21.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49%

29.8%

21.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Corinthians has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Estudiantes La Plata has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Corinthians than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estudiantes La Plata than the current prediction. (-1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	42.9%	0%

Corinthians - Estudiantes La Plata Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Corinthians will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Corinthians (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Corinthians (3.34) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Corinthians (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hugo Souza (G) 2. Matheuzinho 3. Gabriel Paulista 13. Gustavo Henrique 21. Matheus Bidu 29. Allan 19. Carrillo A. 37. Kaio Cesar 8. Garro R. (C) 7. Breno Bidon 10. Depay M.	16. Muslera F. (G) 40. Mancuso E. 4. Nunez S. 14. Gonzalez Pirez L. 24. Palacios T. 31. Rodriguez B. 21. Piovi L. 22. Castro A. 17. Burgos J. 32. Correa J. 9. Carrillo G. (C)
Substitutes
49. Andre 26. Angileri F. 35. Charles Rigon 61. Dieguinho 56. Gui Negao 4. Joao Pedro 51. Kaue (G) 77. Lingard J. 55. Machado I. 20. Milans P. 18. Pedro Raul 23. Pereira M.	28. Aguirre B. 18. Cetre E. 3. Desabato M. 39. Elias J. 26. Funes Mori R. 8. Gabriel Neves 19. Gaich A. 1. Iacovich F. (G) 20. Meza E. 36. Pereyra J. 29. Perez Fabricio 7. Sosa J.
Coaches
Diniz F.	Medina A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
4', Breno Bidon 🟨,
41', Palacios T. 🟨,
45', Gonzalez Pirez L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
64', Correa J. ↓, Perez Fabricio ↑,
69', Carrillo A. ↓, Andre ↑,
76', Rodriguez B. ↓, Gabriel Neves ↑,
76', Burgos J. ↓, Cetre E. ↑,
87', 0 - 1, Castro A. ⚽, Palacios T. (A),
90+1', Allan ↓, Gui Negao ↑,
90+1', Gabriel Paulista ↓, Pedro Raul ↑,
90+1', Perez Fabricio ↓, Funes Mori R. ↑,
90+1', Mancuso E. ↓, Meza E. ↑,
90+1', Breno Bidon ↓, Lingard J. ↑,
90+7', Garro R. 🟨,
90+11', Depay M. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

First leg result: 1-1.

Corinthians is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Estudiantes has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Corinthians may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Estudiantes has had a series of home games.

In this match, Corinthians is the team to beat.

There will not play in Corinthians: Andre (Muscle Injury) Andre Ramalho (Inactive) Kayke (Knee Injury) Labyad Z. (Knee Injury) Yuri Alberto (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Estudiantes: Alario L. (Inactive) Arzamendia S. (Knee Injury) Benedetti G. (Yellow Cards) Funes Mori R. (Inactive) Palacios T. (Injury) Palacios T. (Inactive)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Corinthians won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Corinthians won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Outrights of Copa Libertadores for now

Estudiantes L.P.: 5.48% Corinthians: 4.57%

Last Results with these Odds

Corinthians - the odds 1.91 are the expected chance of winning is 48.42%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Corinthians
Brazilian Serie A
13.09.26	Flamengo - Corinthians	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
09.09.26	Estudiantes La Plata - Corinthians	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
06.09.26	Corinthians - Chapecoense	1:2 ✺
30.08.26	Corinthians - Santos	0:1 ✺
23.08.26	Coritiba - Corinthians	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LTLLL
- Estudiantes La Plata
Argentinian Liga Profesional
12.09.26	Estudiantes La Plata - Platense	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
09.09.26	Estudiantes La Plata - Corinthians	1:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
05.09.26	Vélez Sársfield - Estudiantes La Plata	1:0 ✺
31.08.26	Estudiantes La Plata - Newells Old Boys	0:0 ✺
Copa Argentina
27.08.26	Estudiantes La Plata - Barracas Central	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WTLTW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
09.09.26	Estudiantes La Plata - Corinthians	1:1
Copa Sudamericana
29.08.23	Estudiantes La Plata - Corinthians	1:1 penalties
22.08.23	Corinthians - Estudiantes La Plata	1:0

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