Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 16

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Urbano Caldeira (Santos)

Referee: Zanovelli P. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Mexico	Azteca Deportes, Disney+
Usa	Fanatiz


	Santos		Coritiba

	1	X	2
	1.61	3.75	5.75	Watch
	1.65	3.55	5.4	Watch
	1.67	3.85	5.95
	1.71	3.55	5.56	Watch
	1.62	3.5	5
	1.66	3.81	5.7	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↓ (1.95)	3.67 ↑ (3.29)	5.56 ↑ (4.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santos
57.2%

Draw
25.8%

Coritiba
17%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.8%

28.9%

22.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.9%

29.4%

22.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Santos's performance.

Coritiba has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Coritiba might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santos than the current prediction. (-9.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Santos that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Coritiba than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Coritiba could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90%	10%	0%

Santos - Coritiba Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Santos (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Santos will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.41% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
77. Gabriel Brazao (G) 12. Mayke 98. Frias A. 4. Lucas Verissimo 31. Escobar G. 15. Willian Arao 48. Gustavo Henrique 49. Gabriel Bontempo 10. Neymar (C) 32. Rollheiser B. 21. Moises	12. Pedro Rangel (G) 86. Lucas Taverna 4. Rodrigo Moledo 23. Tiago Coser 26. Bruno Melo 21. Thiago Santos 19. Gomez S. (C) 7. Lavega J. 10. Josue 77. Breno Lopes 32. Pedro Rocha
Substitutes
22. Barreal A. 19. Diaz L. 1. Diogenes (G) 9. Gabriel Barbosa 26. Joao Ananias 14. Luan Peres 30. Miguelito 28. Oliva C. 81. Pierri S. 7. Robinho Jr. 67. Rodrigo Falcao (G) 11. Rony	33. Alves D. 67. Benassi (G) 28. Fabinho 88. Fernando Sobral 39. Gustavo 13. Keiller (G) 78. Renato Marques 36. Vini Paulista 8. Wallisson 29. Willian Oliveira
Coaches
Cuca	Fernando Seabra

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
5', 0 - 1, Breno Lopes ⚽, Josue (A),
16', Lucas Taverna 🟨,
20', 0 - 2, Breno Lopes ⚽, Pedro Rocha (A),
37', Escobar G. 🟨,
39', 0 - 3, Josue (Penalty Awarded),
40', Mayke ↓, Oliva C. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Gustavo Henrique ↓, Luan Peres ↑,
46', Moises ↓, Gabriel Barbosa ↑,
46', Willian Arao ↓, Barreal A. ↑,
56', Luan Peres ↓, Joao Ananias ↑,
60', Lucas Taverna ↓, Wallisson ↑,
60', Lavega J. ↓, Willian Oliveira ↑,
65', Neymar ↓, Robinho Jr. ↑,
67', Neymar 🟨,
73', Barreal A. 🟥,
83', Pedro Rocha ↓, Renato Marques ↑,
84', Thiago Santos ↓, Vini Paulista ↑,
84', Josue 🟨,
90+2', Josue ↓, Gustavo ↑,
90+3', Gabriel Barbosa 🟨,
90+5', Breno Lopes ↓, Alves D. ↑,
90+5', Joao Ananias 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 0-0. Aggregate: 0-2.

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 15 and 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Santos won 4.

Santos is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Coritiba has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Coritiba may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Santos has had a series of away games.

In this match, Santos is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Santos: Thaciano (Inactive) Vinicius Lira (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Coritiba: Fabinho (Inactive) Keno (Knee Injury) Lucas Ronier (Yellow Cards) Maicon (Inactive) Pedro Morisco (Shoulder Injury) Rodrigo Rodrigues (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Santos: Joao Schmidt (Injury)

There are questionable in Coritiba: Tinga (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Santos won 13 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 30:10. (average 1.5:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Santos won 9 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 21:4. (average 2.1:0.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Santos	29	11	9	9	45:43	2	42
10	Coritiba	29	10	8	11	37:47	-10	38

Last Results with these Odds

Santos - the odds 1.95 are the expected chance of winning is 48.77%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santos FC
Copa do Brasil
13.05.26	Coritiba - Santos	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
10.05.26	Santos - Red Bull Bragantino	2:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
05.05.26	Deportivo Recoleta - Santos	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
02.05.26	Palmeiras - Santos	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
28.04.26	San Lorenzo - Santos	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 WWTTT
- Coritiba
Copa do Brasil
13.05.26	Coritiba - Santos	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
09.05.26	Coritiba - Internacional RS	2:2 ✺
02.05.26	Vitória Salvador - Coritiba	4:1 ✺
26.04.26	Grêmio - Coritiba	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
22.04.26	Santos - Coritiba	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LTLLT

Latest Head to Head

Copa do Brasil
13.05.26	Coritiba - Santos	0:2
22.04.26	Santos - Coritiba	0:0
Brazilian Serie B
11.11.24	Coritiba - Santos	0:2
22.07.24	Santos - Coritiba	4:0
Brazilian Serie A
26.10.23	Santos - Coritiba	2:1
10.06.23	Coritiba - Santos	0:0
08.08.22	Coritiba - Santos	1:2

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