Match Info
Serie A Betano - Round 16Date: 17 May 2026, SundayLocation: Estadio Urbano Caldeira (Santos)Referee: Zanovelli P. (Bra)Where to Watch on TV: | |
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 Brazil | Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 Ecuador | Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol |
 Mexico | Azteca Deportes, Disney+ |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
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Santos |
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Coritiba |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
- The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Santos
57.2% | Draw
25.8% | Coritiba
17% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Santos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Santos's performance.Coritiba has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Coritiba might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santos than the current prediction. (-9.3%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Santos that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Coritiba than the current prediction. (+5.7%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Coritiba could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.Predictions
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Santos (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Santos will win
(9 of 10 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.41% – 100%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0 
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Lineups
| Starting Lineups |
77.  Gabriel Brazao (G)
12. Mayke
98.  Frias A.
4. Lucas Verissimo
31. Escobar G.
15. Willian Arao
48. Gustavo Henrique
49. Gabriel Bontempo
10. Neymar (C)
32. Rollheiser B.
21. Moises
| 12. Pedro Rangel (G)
86. Lucas Taverna
4. Rodrigo Moledo
23. Tiago Coser
26. Bruno Melo
21. Thiago Santos
19.  Gomez S. (C)
7.  Lavega J.
10.  Josue
77. Breno Lopes
32. Pedro Rocha
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| Substitutes |
22. Barreal A.
19. Diaz L.
1. Diogenes (G)
9. Gabriel Barbosa
26. Joao Ananias
14. Luan Peres
30.  Miguelito
28. Oliva C.
81. Pierri S.
7. Robinho Jr.
67. Rodrigo Falcao (G)
11. Rony
| 33. Alves D.
67. Benassi (G)
28. Fabinho
88. Fernando Sobral
39. Gustavo
13. Keiller (G)
78. Renato Marques
36. Vini Paulista
8. Wallisson
29. Willian Oliveira
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| Coaches |
Cuca
| Fernando Seabra
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (0 - 3)
- 5', 0 - 1, Breno Lopes ⚽, Josue (A),
- 16', Lucas Taverna 🟨,
- 20', 0 - 2, Breno Lopes ⚽, Pedro Rocha (A),
- 37', Escobar G. 🟨,
- 39', 0 - 3, Josue (Penalty Awarded),
- 40', Mayke ↓, Oliva C. ↑,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 46', Gustavo Henrique ↓, Luan Peres ↑,
- 46', Moises ↓, Gabriel Barbosa ↑,
- 46', Willian Arao ↓, Barreal A. ↑,
- 56', Luan Peres ↓, Joao Ananias ↑,
- 60', Lucas Taverna ↓, Wallisson ↑,
- 60', Lavega J. ↓, Willian Oliveira ↑,
- 65', Neymar ↓, Robinho Jr. ↑,
- 67', Neymar 🟨,
- 73', Barreal A. 🟥,
- 83', Pedro Rocha ↓, Renato Marques ↑,
- 84', Thiago Santos ↓, Vini Paulista ↑,
- 84', Josue 🟨,
- 90+2', Josue ↓, Gustavo ↑,
- 90+3', Gabriel Barbosa 🟨,
- 90+5', Breno Lopes ↓, Alves D. ↑,
- 90+5', Joao Ananias 🟨,
Preview
First leg result: 0-0. Aggregate: 0-2.Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 15 and 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Santos won 4.Santos is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 2 wins).Coritiba has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).Coritiba may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.Recently, Santos has had a series of away games. In this match, Santos is considered a favorite.There will not play in Santos: Thaciano
(Inactive)
Vinicius Lira
(Knee Injury)There will not play in Coritiba: Fabinho
(Inactive)
Keno
(Knee Injury)
Lucas Ronier
(Yellow Cards)
Maicon
(Inactive)
Pedro Morisco
(Shoulder Injury)
Rodrigo Rodrigues
(Ankle Injury)There are questionable in Santos: Joao Schmidt
(Injury)There are questionable in Coritiba: Tinga
(Injury)In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Santos won 13 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 30:10. (average 1.5:0.5).Including home matches between the teams, Santos won 9 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 21:4. (average 2.1:0.4).
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Standings
| | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
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| 7 | Coritiba | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 34:35 | -1 | 37 |
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| 12 | Santos | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 37:38 | -1 | 32 |
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Last Results with these Odds
Santos - the odds 1.95 are the expected chance of winning is 48.77%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| Copa do Brasil | | | 13.05.26 | Coritiba - Santos | 0:2 | | 22.04.26 | Santos - Coritiba | 0:0 | | Brazilian Serie B | | | 11.11.24 | Coritiba - Santos | 0:2 | | 22.07.24 | Santos - Coritiba | 4:0 | | Brazilian Serie A | | | 26.10.23 | Santos - Coritiba | 2:1 | | 10.06.23 | Coritiba - Santos | 0:0 | | 08.08.22 | Coritiba - Santos | 1:2 |
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✺ - difficult match;
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