Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie B - Round 16

Date: 20 July 2024, Saturday

Location: Leonidas Sodre de Castro (Belem)

Referee: da Cruz Y. E. F. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canais Globo, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
World	Amazon Prime Video


	Paysandu		Ponte Preta

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.6	5.75	Watch
	1.62	3.5	5
	1.63	3.6	5.5
	1.66	3.8	5.9
	1.71	3.6	4.95	Watch
	1.62	3.6	5.5
	1.66	3.68	5.26	Watch
	1.66	3.5	5.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↓ (1.94)	3.61 ↑ (3.24)	5.38 ↑ (3.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paysandu
56.7%

Draw
25.9%

Ponte Preta
17.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.9%

28.7%

23.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49%

28.1%

22.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paysandu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Paysandu's performance.

Ponte Preta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ponte Preta might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paysandu than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Paysandu that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponte Preta than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ponte Preta could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
63.6%	27.3%	9.1%

Paysandu - Ponte Preta Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Paysandu will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Ponte Preta will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Paysandu: 35.2% – 92%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Diogo Silva (G) 2. Edilson 4. Wanderson 27. Lucas Maia 21. Bryan 8. Joao Vieira 30. Val Soares 10. Cazares 22. Jean Dias 9. Paulinho Boia 11. Nicolas (C)	1. Pedro Rocha (G) 2. Igor Inocencio 13. Joilson 4. Mateus Silva 31. Ze Mario 15. Castro 21. Ramon 18. Emerson Santos 10. Elvis (C) 7. Dodo 9. Jeh
Substitutes
17. Biel Fonseca 23. Carlao 18. Edinho 15. Garcia E. 14. Juninho 28. Leandro Vilela 34. Leo Pereira 35. Luan Freitas 13. Matheus Nogueira (G) 16. Michel Macedo 5. Netinho 20. Robinho	5. Dudu Vieira 29. Everton Brito 11. Iago Dias 20. Joao Gabriel 22. Kaue 25. Lucas Buchecha 44. Nilson Junior 39. Thiago Lopes 12. William (G)
Coaches
Helio dos Anjos	Baptista N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', Ze Mario 🟨,
11', Joilson 🟨,
25', Ze Mario 🟨,
37', 1 - 0, Paulinho Boia ⚽, Cazares (A),
45', Paulinho Boia 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Dodo ↓, Joao Gabriel ↑,
46', Elvis ↓, Everton Brito ↑,
58', Joao Gabriel 🟨,
61', Emerson Santos 🟨,
63', Emerson Santos ↓, Dudu Vieira ↑,
65', Jean Dias ↓, Edinho ↑,
66', Paulinho Boia ↓, Garcia E. ↑,
74', Val Soares 🟨,
75', Cazares ↓, Netinho ↑,
75', Bryan ↓, Leo Pereira ↑,
75', Joao Vieira ↓, Leandro Vilela ↑,
79', Ramon ↓, Iago Dias ↑,
90+5', Wanderson 🟨,

Preview

Teams from a mid-table will play this time (ranked 13 and 12).

Paysandu is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Recent matches Ponte Preta is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Paysandu could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Paysandu is a favorite.

There will not play in Ponte Preta: Gabriel Novaes (Injury) Renato (Injury)

Last 2 head-to-head matches Paysandu won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Paysandu won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paysandu PA
Brazilian Serie B
12.07.24	Paysandu - Ceará	2:1 ✺
07.07.24	Coritiba - Paysandu	1:1 ✺
30.06.24	Paysandu - Operário Ferroviario	1:1 ✺
23.06.24	Chapecoense - Paysandu	1:2 ✺
18.06.24	Paysandu - CRB Maceio	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 WTTWT
- AA Ponte Preta
Brazilian Serie B
12.07.24	Ponte Preta - Mirassol	4:2 ✺
05.07.24	Brusque - Ponte Preta	0:0 ✺
30.06.24	Guarani - Ponte Preta	1:1 ✺
25.06.24	Ponte Preta - Ceará	3:1 ✺
19.06.24	Botafogo SP - Ponte Preta	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
07.08.18	Paysandu - Ponte Preta	0:4
14.04.18	Ponte Preta - Paysandu	0:1

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