Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 12

Date: 8 October 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Tecnológico de Oaxaca (Oaxaca de Juárez) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Solorio Arreola H. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	22:00	Disney+
Brazil	22:00	Disney+
Chile	22:00	Disney+
Colombia	20:00	Disney+
Mexico	19:00	Disney+, ESPN 2
Peru	20:00	Disney+
Uruguay	22:00	Disney+
Venezuela	21:00	Disney+


	Alebrijes de Oaxaca		Correcaminos UAT

	1	X	2
				Watch
	4.00	3.90	1.62
	4.1	3.95	1.65
	4.48	4.27	1.7
	4.2	4.35	1.68	Watch
	4.15	4.15	1.67
	4.23	4.15	1.59	Watch
	4.1	4	1.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.18 ↑ (2.52)	4.11 ↑ (3.45)	1.65 ↓ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alebrijes de Oaxaca
22%

Draw
22.4%

Correcaminos UAT
55.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

36.8%

26.8%

36.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.9%

26%

35.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alebrijes de Oaxaca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alebrijes de Oaxaca's form might have worsened.

Correcaminos UAT has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+19.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Correcaminos UAT's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alebrijes de Oaxaca than the current prediction. (+15.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alebrijes de Oaxaca, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Correcaminos UAT than the current prediction. (-20.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Correcaminos UAT, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	33.3%	66.7%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Correcaminos UAT Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Correcaminos will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Correcaminos (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rodas C. (G) 15. Villa P. 11. Andrey Marcos 12. Reyes J. (C) 3. Justo A. 23. Hernandez A. 19. Fadika B. 28. Jeffus L. 27. Sanchez E. 177. Bustos J. 8. Barreda I.	1. Perez E. (G) 2. Ortega W. 13. Moreno G. 3. Perez O. 19. Catalan A. 20. Estopier J. 8. Torres D. 25. Torres E. (C) 33. Mina D. 32. Sandoval T. 10. Guzman W.
Substitutes
20. Ayala D. 26. Carreon M. 17. Collazo D. 16. Gallinar S. 18. Gonzalez J. 174. Hernandez S. 22. Jaimes Rodriguez T. 5. Lopez E. 25. Martinez D. 131. Palacios A. (G)	28. Arce R. 88. Barron D. 27. Cantu J. 82. Garcia Gonzalez I. P. (G) 12. Gomez Del Rosal N. 23. Gonzalez R. 5. Monarrez A. 14. Sosa C. 11. Uribe Y. 17. Zapata J.
Coaches
Hernandez E.	Pereyra G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
21', Bustos J. 🟨,
21', Fadika B. ↓, Gallinar S. ↑,
30', Reyes J. 🟨,
33', Justo A. 🟨,
45', Torres E. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Moreno G. ↓, Barron D. ↑,
48', Guzman W. 🟨,
58', Sandoval T. ↓, Arce R. ↑,
63', Barreda I. 🟨,
63', Perez O. 🟨,
64', 1 - 0, Justo A. ⚽, Andrey Marcos (A),
68', Bustos J. ↓, Ayala D. ↑,
68', Estopier J. ↓, Gomez Del Rosal N. ↑,
70', Catalan A. 🟨,
79', 2 - 0, Barreda I. ⚽, Gallinar S. (A),
81', Ortega W. ↓, Uribe Y. ↑,
81', Mina D. ↓, Cantu J. ↑,
85', Villa P. ↓, Jaimes Rodriguez T. ↑,
85', Barreda I. ↓, Martinez D. ↑,
85', Gallinar S. ↓, Collazo D. ↑,
88', 2 - 1, Arce R. ⚽, Uribe Y. (A),
90+1', Jeffus L. 🟥,

Preview

A determined lower-tier side seeks an essential result against mid-table opposition (ranked 14th and 9th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alebrijes de Oaxaca won 3.

Alebrijes de Oaxaca is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Correcaminos has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 1 win).

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Correcaminos holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Alebrijes de Oaxaca has recorded 10 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 33:26 (averaging 1.7:1.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Alebrijes de Oaxaca against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 4 draws, and 1 loss, with 16:7 goals (averaging 1.6:0.7 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Alebrijes Oaxaca	14	6	1	7	14:25	-11	19
12	Correcaminos	14	4	4	6	21:24	-3	16

Last Results with these Odds

Alebrijes de Oaxaca - the odds 2.52 are the expected chance of winning is 36.8%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
03.10.26	Piratas de Veracruz - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	4:0 ✺
24.09.26	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Atlético La Paz	1:3 ✺
19.09.26	Cancún - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	3:0 ✺
10.09.26	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Alacranes de Durango	1:0 ✺
05.09.26	Atlético Morelia - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LLLWL
- Correcaminos UAT
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
02.10.26	Correcaminos UAT - Cruz Azul Hidalgo	0:0 ✺
25.09.26	Correcaminos UAT - Jaiba Brava	1:0 ✺
18.09.26	Atlético La Paz - Correcaminos UAT	3:1 ✺
11.09.26	Correcaminos UAT - Cancún	2:2 ✺
05.09.26	Piratas de Veracruz - Correcaminos UAT	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 TWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
17.04.26	Correcaminos UAT - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	1:3
07.11.25	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Correcaminos UAT	1:1
28.02.25	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Correcaminos UAT	0:1
12.09.24	Correcaminos UAT - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	1:3
06.02.24	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Correcaminos UAT	1:0
29.08.23	Correcaminos UAT - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	7:0
24.02.23	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Correcaminos UAT	4:0

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