Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL 2 - ROUND 21

Date: 19 February 2023, Sunday

Location: Estádio de São Luís (Faro)

Referee: Goncalves J. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Farense		Mafra

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.3	4
	1.87	3.2	3.75
	1.94	3.25	3.65
	1.92	3.36	4.62
	1.85	3.1	4
	1.83	3.45	4.2
	1.9	3.3	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↓ (1.96)	3.28 ↑ (3.1)	4 ↑ (3.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Farense
48.9%

Draw
28%

Mafra
23%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.1%

29.1%

24.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.7%

23.8%

30.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Farense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Mafra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Farense than the current prediction. (-11.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Farense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mafra than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mafra could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	8.3%	25%

Farense - Mafra Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Farense will win (votes: 8 - 66.7%). Mafra will win (votes: 3 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 8.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Farense: 40% – 93.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and outsider (ranked 4 and 14).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Farense won 5.

Both teams are in bad shape now.

Farense could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Farense will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Farense won 7 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 13-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Farense won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Farense
Portuguese Liga 2
12.02.23	Académico de Viseu - Farense	2:0 ✺
03.02.23	Farense - Estrela da Amadora	2:2 ✺
29.01.23	Torreense - Farense	1:0 ✺
22.01.23	Tondela - Farense	1:0 ✺
15.01.23	Farense - Benfica B	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 LTLLW
- CD Mafra
Portuguese Liga 2
13.02.23	Mafra - Nacional	3:3 ✺
05.02.23	Penafiel - Mafra	1:0 ✺
29.01.23	Mafra - Oliveirense	2:3 ✺
21.01.23	Mafra - Trofense	1:0 ✺
13.01.23	Moreirense - Mafra	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 TLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
29.08.22	Mafra - Farense	0:3
16.04.22	Farense - Mafra	1:0
05.12.21	Mafra - Farense	0:2
03.11.19	Farense - Mafra	2:1
12.05.19	Mafra - Farense	0:1
18.11.18	Farense - Mafra	1:0
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
10.06.18	Mafra - Farense	2:1

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