Match Info

PORTUGAL: LEAGUE CUP - ROUND 1

Date: 20 November 2022, Sunday

Location: Estádio José Santos Pinto (Covilhã)

Referee: Carvalho H. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Covilhã		Gil Vicente

	1	X	2
				Watch
	6.25	4.2	1.49
	7	4	1.5
	6	4	1.45
	7.19	4.27	1.48
	7	3.75	1.44
	6.5	4.33	1.46	Watch
	6.2	4.2	1.47
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.59 ↑ (3.56)	4.11 ↑ (3.15)	1.47 ↓ (1.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Covilhã
14.1%

Draw
22.6%

Gil Vicente
63.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.5%

28.8%

45.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32%

23%

36.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Covilhã has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Covilhã's form might have worsened.

Gil Vicente has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Gil Vicente's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Covilhã than the current prediction. (+17.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Covilhã, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gil Vicente than the current prediction. (-26.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Gil Vicente, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
19.2%	0%	80.8%

Covilhã - Gil Vicente Predictions

Users Predictions: Gil Vicente will win (21 of 26 users predict this - 80.77%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.62% – 95.92%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Covilhã won 4.

One and the other team has got a line of lost games.

Gil Vicente could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Gil Vicente is a favorite.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Covilhã won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 11-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Covilhã won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 10-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sporting Covilhã
Portuguese Liga 2
13.11.22	Covilhã - BSAD	1:1 ✺
04.11.22	Mafra - Covilhã	3:2 ✺
30.10.22	Covilhã - Leixões	1:2 ✺
22.10.22	Covilhã - Torreense	0:3 ✺
15.10.22	Estrela da Amadora - Covilhã	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 TLLLL
- Gil Vicente
Liga Portugal
13.11.22	Benfica - Gil Vicente	3:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
08.11.22	Gil Vicente - Arouca	1:4 ✺
Liga Portugal
04.11.22	Gil Vicente - Portimonense	1:2 ✺
30.10.22	Gil Vicente - Braga	0:1 ✺
23.10.22	Chaves - Gil Vicente	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
06.05.18	Gil Vicente - Covilhã	0:1
21.12.17	Covilhã - Gil Vicente	3:0
30.04.17	Covilhã - Gil Vicente	2:1
10.12.16	Gil Vicente - Covilhã	0:0
23.01.16	Covilhã - Gil Vicente	3:0
23.08.15	Gil Vicente - Covilhã	4:0
Portuguese League Cup
28.12.14	Covilhã - Gil Vicente	2:1

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