Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 33

Date: 11 May 2026, Monday

Location: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos (Barcelos)

Referee: Fonseca M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV6


	Gil Vicente		Arouca

	1	X	2
	1.57	4	5.25	Watch
	1.65	3.95	4.95	Watch
	1.68	4.06	5.17
	1.66	4	4.98	Watch
	1.67	3.75	4.8	Watch
	1.68	4.03	5.29	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↓ (1.71)	3.97 ↑ (3.88)	5.07 ↑ (4.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gil Vicente
57.4%

Draw
23.9%

Arouca
18.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.3%

24.4%

20.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.3%

23.5%

19.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gil Vicente has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Arouca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gil Vicente than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76.9%	7.7%	15.4%

Gil Vicente - Arouca Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Gil Vicente will win (votes: 9 - 75%). Arouca will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 8.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gil Vicente: 50.5% – 99.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Figueira Daniel (G) 2. Ze Carlos (C) 4. Elimbi M. 39. Buatu J. 3. Konan G. 6. Ze Carlos 95. Garcia S. 77. Murilo de Souza 10. Esteves L. 27. Moreira A. 89. Varela G.	12. De Arruabarrena I. (G) 28. Tiago Esgaio (C) 15. Sanchez J. 3. Fontan J. 25. Kuipers B. 22. van Ee E. 21. Fukui T. 19. Trezza A. 10. Gozalbez P. 7. Djouahra N. 17. Barbero I.
Substitutes
17. Bermejo 29. Carlos Eduardo 5. Caseres F. 48. Espigares A. 11. Fernandes J. 32. Fernandez M. 23. Hernandez H. 20. Hevertton S. 30. Lucao (G)	66. Fayed O. 46. Flores M. 24. Mansilla B. 9. Mayulu F. 6. Monteiro D. 23. Nandin D. 20. Santiago Perez J. 2. Silva J. 30. Vinarcik J. (G)
Coaches
Peixoto C.	Seabra V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Moreira A. 🟨,
43', Fontan J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 3)
46', Moreira A. ↓, Fernandes J. ↑,
46', Ze Carlos ↓, Caseres F. ↑,
61', 0 - 1, Kuipers B. ⚽, Sanchez J. (A),
63', 1 - 1, Esteves L. ⚽, Varela G. (A),
64', Varela G. ↓, Hernandez H. ↑,
64', Garcia S. ↓, Fernandez M. ↑,
67', 1 - 2, Barbero I. ⚽, Gozalbez P. (A),
76', Trezza A. ↓, Flores M. ↑,
82', Barbero I. ↓, Nandin D. ↑,
82', 1 - 3, Fukui T. ⚽,
83', Konan G. ↓, Carlos Eduardo ↑,
89', Hernandez H. 🟨,
90+2', Gozalbez P. ↓, Mansilla B. ↑,
90+2', Djouahra N. ↓, Silva J. ↑,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 6 and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gil Vicente won 0.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Gil Vicente may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Gil Vicente is a strong favorite.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Gil Vicente won 0 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 12:31. (average 0.7:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Gil Vicente won 0 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 7:17. (average 0.8:1.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Arouca	7	3	2	2	10:7	3	11
7	Gil Vicente	7	3	2	2	6:5	1	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gil Vicente
Liga Portugal
03.05.26	Rio Ave - Gil Vicente	0:0 ✺
27.04.26	Gil Vicente - Casa Pia	2:1 ✺
18.04.26	Gil Vicente - Vitoria Guimarães	0:1 ✺
13.04.26	Tondela - Gil Vicente	2:2 ✺
03.04.26	Gil Vicente - AVS	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 TWLTW
- FC Arouca
Liga Portugal
02.05.26	Arouca - Santa Clara	2:2 ✺
24.04.26	Alverca - Arouca	2:1 ✺
19.04.26	Arouca - Estrela da Amadora	1:0 ✺
12.04.26	Braga - Arouca	1:0 ✺
06.04.26	Arouca - Estoril Praia	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 TLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
28.12.25	Arouca - Gil Vicente	2:2
10.05.25	Gil Vicente - Arouca	1:1
27.12.24	Arouca - Gil Vicente	1:1
26.04.24	Gil Vicente - Arouca	2:2
16.12.23	Arouca - Gil Vicente	3:0
05.02.23	Gil Vicente - Arouca	1:1
Taça de Portugal
08.11.22	Gil Vicente - Arouca	1:4

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