Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL - ROUND 8

Date: 7 October 2023, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Chaves (Chaves)

Referee: Goncalves J. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Chaves		Gil Vicente

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.25	2.3	Watch
	2.75	3.3	2.45	Watch
	2.8	3.4	2.45	Watch
	2.89	3.54	2.51
	2.75	3.3	2.45	Watch
	2.82	3.48	2.43	Watch
	2.85	3.4	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.8 ↑ (2.66)	3.38 ↑ (3.3)	2.43 ↓ (2.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chaves
33.6%

Draw
27.8%

Gil Vicente
38.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.4%

28.5%

36%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.9%

28.9%

36.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chaves has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Gil Vicente has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chaves than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gil Vicente than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.2%	36.4%	45.5%

Chaves - Gil Vicente Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Chaves will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). Gil Vicente will win (votes: 5 - 45.5%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 36.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gil Vicente: 16.1% – 74.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hugo Souza (G) 4. Bruno Rodrigues 19. Vitoria S. 44. Queiros J. 77. Araujo Correia J. P. (C) 28. Nwakali K. 21. Guimaraes R. 10. Sanca L. 5. Langa B. A. 9. Paulo Victor 23. Hernandez H.	42. da Silva Ventura A. (G) 2. Ze Carlos 13. Gabriel Pereira 26. Ruben (C) 23. Buta L. 25. Pedro Tiba 8. Dominguez M. 77. Murilo 76. Neto M. 70. Correia F. 29. Aurelio L.
Substitutes
11. Abass I. 7. Bernardo Sousa 33. Cruz S. 30. Jesus G. (G) 70. Morim H. 31. Moura R. (G) 8. Pedro J. 18. Pinho P. 20. Ribeiro R.	7. Chabrol T. 10. Fujimoto K. 24. Gbane M. 11. Marlon 27. Monteiro M. 5. Pereira F. 12. Rocha Araujo B. (G) 58. Thomas Luciano 14. Wilson R.
Coaches
Morgado L.	Campelos V.

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 9).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Chaves won 4.

Chaves is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Gil Vicente is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Gil Vicente: Alipour A. (Injury) Kritsyuk S. (Injury)

Last 6 head-to-head matches Chaves won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 11-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Chaves won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 9-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Desportivo Chaves
Liga Portugal
01.10.23	Arouca - Chaves	0:2 ✺
24.09.23	Chaves - Estrela da Amadora	2:2 ✺
18.09.23	Boavista - Chaves	4:1 ✺
03.09.23	Chaves - Moreirense	1:2 ✺
26.08.23	Farense - Chaves	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WTLLL
- Gil Vicente
Liga Portugal
02.10.23	Gil Vicente - Casa Pia	2:0 ✺
23.09.23	Porto - Gil Vicente	2:1 ✺
17.09.23	Gil Vicente - Estoril Praia	5:3 ✺
01.09.23	Vizela - Gil Vicente	1:0 ✺
26.08.23	Gil Vicente - Benfica	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
10.04.23	Gil Vicente - Chaves	0:0
23.10.22	Chaves - Gil Vicente	3:1
Club Friendly
31.07.19	Chaves - Gil Vicente	2:1
20.07.19	Gil Vicente - Chaves	0:1
Portuguese Liga 2
17.04.16	Chaves - Gil Vicente	4:0
06.12.15	Gil Vicente - Chaves	1:1

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