Match Info

PORTUGAL: LEAGUE CUP - ROUND 1

Date: 19 November 2022, Saturday

Location: Estádio da Madeira (Funchal)

Referee: Oliveira M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Nacional		Portimonense

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.9	3.6	1.85
	4.1	3.55	1.82
	3.65	3.5	1.84
	4.19	3.74	1.85
	3.9	3.3	1.83
	4.05	3.68	1.82	Watch
	3.75	3.6	1.87
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.93 ↑ (3.44)	3.57 ↑ (3.19)	1.84 ↓ (2.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional
23.6%

Draw
26%

Portimonense
50.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.4%

28.5%

45.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.3%

24.8%

39.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Portimonense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Portimonense's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Nacional, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Portimonense than the current prediction. (-11.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Portimonense, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.3%	0%	91.7%

Nacional - Portimonense Predictions

Users Predictions: Portimonense will win (11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.03% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

Nacional is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Portimonense is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Portimonense could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Portimonense is a favorite.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Nacional won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 2-12.

Including matches at home between the teams Nacional won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atletico Nacional
Portuguese Liga 2
12.11.22	Nacional - Porto B	4:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
09.11.22	Nacional - Tondela	1:0 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
06.11.22	Feirense - Nacional	1:1 ✺
29.10.22	Nacional - Penafiel	1:1 ✺
23.10.22	Oliveirense - Nacional	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WWTTT
- Portimonense SC
Liga Portugal
13.11.22	Portimonense - Braga	1:2 ✺
04.11.22	Gil Vicente - Portimonense	1:2 ✺
30.10.22	Portimonense - Estoril Praia	1:1 ✺
24.10.22	Rio Ave - Portimonense	1:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
16.10.22	Vilaverdense - Portimonense	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
02.04.21	Nacional - Portimonense	1:5
29.11.20	Portimonense - Nacional	1:0
10.03.19	Portimonense - Nacional	5:1
26.10.18	Nacional - Portimonense	0:1

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