Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 14

Date: 15 December 2025, Monday

Location: Estádio da Madeira (Funchal)

Referee: Baixinho R. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Portugal	Sport TV2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 6, MEGOGO Ukraine


	Nacional		Tondela

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.05	3.05	Watch
	2.32	3.15	3.05
	2.4	3.2	3.29
	2.33	3.19	3.22	Watch
	2.3	3	3.1
	2.43	3.23	3.23	Watch
	2.33	3.2	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.34 ↑ (2.21)	3.15 ↓ (3.18)	3.15 ↓ (3.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional
40.2%

Draw
29.9%

Tondela
29.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.7%

29.7%

27.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.7%

29.7%

27.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Tondela has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tondela than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
52.2%	21.7%	26.1%

Nacional - Tondela Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 12 - 54.5%). Tondela will win (votes: 6 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nacional: 33.7% – 75.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 5 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH +0.25 - Tondela (1.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Tondela (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 5 - 83.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kaique Pereira (G) 88. Deivison 38. Ze Vitor 34. Leo Santos 24. Vallier L. 8. Baeza M. 6. Matheus Dias 28. Liziero 7. Witi 9. Ramirez J. (C) 11. Paulinho Boia	31. Bernardo (G) 48. Manso T. 4. Marques C. 20. Medina B. 60. Maviram E. 32. Rodriguez J. 15. Sithole S. 79. Felix H. 7. Pedro Maranhao (C) 29. Siebatcheu J. 17. Cavaleiro I.
Substitutes
2. Aurelio J. 10. Daniel Junior 33. Goncalves C. 19. Joao L. 15. Labidi C. 37. Lucas Franca (G) 17. Nourani M. 99. Pablo Ruan 18. Sousa A.	5. Afonso J. 6. Ceitil A. 97. Cicero 10. Hodge J. 19. Rodrigues A. 11. Rodriguez Y. 1. Souza G. (G) 8. Tavares H. 67. Yarlen
Coaches
Margarido T.	Bacci C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
20', Marques C. 🟨,
22', Deivison 🟥,
24', Baeza M. ↓, Aurelio J. ↑,
34', Margarido T. 🟥,
35', Witi 🟨,
37', Pedro Maranhao (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Marques C. ↓, Ceitil A. ↑,
49', 0 - 1, Maviram E. ⚽, Pedro Maranhao (A),
54', Leo Santos 🟨,
54', Siebatcheu J. 🟨,
60', Maviram E. 🟨,
61', Matheus Dias ↓, Labidi C. ↑,
61', Witi ↓, Pablo Ruan ↑,
62', Rodriguez J. 🟨,
66', Felix H. 🟨,
68', 1 - 1, Ze Vitor ⚽,
71', Maviram E. ↓, Tavares H. ↑,
71', Rodriguez J. ↓, Rodrigues A. ↑,
79', Cavaleiro I. ↓, Yarlen ↑,
82', Felix H. ↓, Hodge J. ↑,
90', Rodrigues A. 🟨,
90', Aurelio J. 🟨,
90+2', Liziero ↓, Sousa A. ↑,
90+8', Siebatcheu J. (Penalty Awarded),
90+9', 2 - 1, Ramirez J. ⚽,
90+11', Paulinho Boia 🟨,
90+11', Sousa A. 🟨,
90+13', Medina B. 🟥,
90+15', 3 - 1, Ramirez J. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 14 and 16 in the zone Liga Portugal (Relegation)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 2.

Nacional has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Tondela is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Nacional could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Nacional: Fernandes I. (Injury) Soares F. (Injury) Ulisses (Injury)

There will not play in Tondela: Bebeto (Injury)

There are questionable in Nacional: Aurelio J. (Injury) Pablo Ruan (Injury)

There are questionable in Tondela: Moudjatovic M. (Injury)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 20:18. (average 1.3:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Nacional won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 13:7. (average 1.9:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atletico Nacional
Liga Portugal
07.12.25	Alverca - Nacional	1:0 ✺
29.11.25	Nacional - Benfica	1:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
23.11.25	Braga - Nacional	4:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
09.11.25	Estrela da Amadora - Nacional	1:1 ✺
01.11.25	Nacional - Famalicão	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLLTL
- CD Tondela
Liga Portugal
07.12.25	Tondela - Porto	0:2 ✺
29.11.25	Gil Vicente - Tondela	0:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
23.11.25	Tondela - Caldas	0:1 penalties ✺
Liga Portugal
08.11.25	Tondela - Vitoria Guimarães	0:1 ✺
02.11.25	AVS - Tondela	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 LWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
12.05.24	Tondela - Nacional	2:3
06.01.24	Nacional - Tondela	1:1
29.01.23	Tondela - Nacional	1:0
Taça de Portugal
09.11.22	Nacional - Tondela	1:0
Portuguese Liga 2
06.08.22	Nacional - Tondela	0:1
Liga Portugal
22.04.21	Tondela - Nacional	2:1
27.12.20	Nacional - Tondela	2:0

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