Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 18

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos (Barcelos)

Referee: Nogueira M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine


	Gil Vicente		Nacional

	1	X	2
	1.71	3.4	5	Watch
	1.75	3.45	4.7	Watch
	1.75	3.61	4.87	Watch
	1.75	3.4	4.6
	1.81	3.51	5.17	Watch
	1.75	3.4	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↓ (1.77)	3.46 ↑ (3.35)	4.89 ↑ (4.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gil Vicente
53.6%

Draw
27.2%

Nacional
19.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.6%

27.7%

19.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.6%

27.2%

19.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gil Vicente has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

The ML Model estimate for Gil Vicente aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.2%	16.7%	11.1%

Gil Vicente - Nacional Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Gil Vicente will win (votes: 13 - 72.2%). Nacional will win (votes: 2 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gil Vicente: 51.5% – 92.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - draw (2.12) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Gil Vicente will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Figueira Daniel (G) 2. Ze Carlos (C) 39. Buatu J. 4. Elimbi M. 3. Konan G. 6. Ze Carlos 95. Garcia S. 77. Murilo de Souza 10. Esteves L. 7. Toure T. 89. Varela G.	1. Kaique Pereira (G) 2. Aurelio J. (C) 34. Leo Santos 38. Ze Vitor 5. Jose Gomes 15. Labidi C. 6. Matheus Dias 28. Liziero 10. Daniel Junior 9. Ramirez J. 11. Paulinho Boia
Substitutes
8. Bamba M. 17. Bermejo 5. Caseres F. 48. Espigares A. 11. Fernandes J. 32. Fernandez M. 20. Hevertton S. 1. Picornell A. (G) 80. Rodrigues R.	8. Baeza M. 27. Gabriel Veron 33. Goncalves C. 19. Joao L. 37. Lucas Franca (G) 16. Nunez A. 26. Silva J. 18. Sousa A. 7. Witi
Coaches
Peixoto C.	Margarido T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
19', 1 - 0, Murilo de Souza ⚽,
22', 1 - 1, Ze Vitor ⚽, Leo Santos (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
57', 2 - 1, Garcia S. ⚽,
59', Paulinho Boia 🟨,
64', Labidi C. ↓, Baeza M. ↑,
64', Paulinho Boia ↓, Gabriel Veron ↑,
70', Matheus Dias 🟨,
71', Ze Carlos ↓, Bamba M. ↑,
72', Toure T. ↓, Fernandes J. ↑,
74', Matheus Dias ↓, Silva J. ↑,
75', Aurelio J. ↓, Nunez A. ↑,
76', Varela G. ↓, Fernandez M. ↑,
81', Liziero ↓, Joao L. ↑,
85', Esteves L. ↓, Espigares A. ↑,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gil Vicente won 5.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Nacional may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Gil Vicente is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Gil Vicente: Moreira A. (Injury)

There will not play in Nacional: Fernandes I. (Injury) Soares F. (Injury) Ulisses (Injury)

There are questionable in Gil Vicente: Buatu J. (Inactive) Caseres F. (Injury)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Gil Vicente won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 22:16. (average 1.3:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Gil Vicente won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:3. (average 1.1:0.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Gil Vicente	7	3	2	2	6:5	1	11
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	7:15	-8	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gil Vicente
Liga Portugal
02.01.26	Gil Vicente - Sporting Lisbon	1:1 ✺
28.12.25	Arouca - Gil Vicente	2:2 ✺
20.12.25	Gil Vicente - Rio Ave	2:2 ✺
13.12.25	Casa Pia - Gil Vicente	1:1 ✺
08.12.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Gil Vicente	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 TTTTT
- Atletico Nacional
Liga Portugal
11.01.26	Nacional - Santa Clara	3:3 ✺
02.01.26	Vitoria Guimarães - Nacional	2:1 ✺
21.12.25	AVS - Nacional	2:2 ✺
15.12.25	Nacional - Tondela	3:1 ✺
07.12.25	Alverca - Nacional	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 TLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
09.08.25	Nacional - Gil Vicente	0:2
19.04.25	Nacional - Gil Vicente	0:3
07.12.24	Gil Vicente - Nacional	2:1
Portuguese League Cup
27.11.22	Gil Vicente - Nacional	2:0
Liga Portugal
19.03.21	Gil Vicente - Nacional	2:0
08.11.20	Nacional - Gil Vicente	2:1
Portuguese Liga 2
22.04.18	Gil Vicente - Nacional	0:0

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