Match Info

POLAND: Ekstraklasa - Round 10

Date: 30 September 2024, Monday

Location: Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego (Kraków)

Referee: Gryckiewicz P. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 3
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, CANAL+ Sport 5, Ekstraklasa TV
Slovakia	JOJ Play, JOJ Sport


	Cracovia		Stal Mielec

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.6	4.5	Watch
	1.75	3.5	4.6
	1.72	3.6	4.75	Watch
	1.74	3.61	5.34
	1.79	3.59	4.67	Watch
	1.67	3.6	4.5
	1.74	3.64	4.65	Watch
	1.72	3.6	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↑ (1.6)	3.59 ↑ (3.55)	4.72 ↓ (4.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cracovia
54.1%

Draw
26%

Stal Mielec
19.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.1%

25.3%

18.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.6%

23.8%

17.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cracovia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Stal Mielec has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cracovia than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cracovia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stal Mielec than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	7.1%	7.1%

Cracovia - Stal Mielec Predictions

Users Predictions: Cracovia will win (24 of 28 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 72.75% – 98.67%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
27. Ravas H. (G) 24. Jugas J. (C) 15. Glik K. 5. Ghita V. 19. Olafsson D. 88. Sokolowski P. 11. Maigaard M. 16. Biedrzycki B. 14. Hasic A. 9. Kallman B. 7. van Buren M.	39. Madrzyk J. (G) 18. Wlazlo P. 21. Matras M. 15. Senger M. 96. Dadok R. 19. Tkacz D. 6. Guillaumier M. 23. Getinger K. (C) 10. Domanski M. 44. Krykun S. 17. Shkurin I.
Substitutes
6. Al-Ammari A. 8. Atanasov J. 17. Bochnak M. 26. Burek J. (G) 23. Bzdyl F. 22. Hoskonen A. 77. Janasik P. 10. Rakoczy M. 3. Skovgaard A.	9. Assayag R. 40. Bagalianis P. 33. Bukowski A. 32. Gerbowski F. 8. Hinokio K. 13. Jalocha K. (G) 27. Jaunzems A. 11. Wolkowicz K. 25. Wolsztynski L.
Coaches
Kroczek D.	Niedzwiedz J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
9', Guillaumier M. 🟨,
30', 0 - 1, Guillaumier M. ⚽,
34', Senger M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
60', Olafsson D. ↓, Atanasov J. ↑,
60', Sokolowski P. ↓, Janasik P. ↑,
61', van Buren M. ↓, Rakoczy M. ↑,
61', Shkurin I. ↓, Assayag R. ↑,
61', Krykun S. ↓, Gerbowski F. ↑,
70', Dadok R. 🟨,
72', Dadok R. ↓, Jaunzems A. ↑,
74', Madrzyk J. 🟨,
85', Senger M. 🟥,
86', 1 - 1, Kallman B. (Pen),
89', Biedrzycki B. ↓, Bochnak M. ↑,
90+1', Domanski M. ↓, Wolsztynski L. ↑,
90+1', Tkacz D. ↓, Wolkowicz K. ↑,
90+6', Glik K. 🟨,

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 4 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Cracovia won 2.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

In this match Cracovia is a favorite.

There will not play in Cracovia: Kakabadze O. (Yellow Cards) Rozga F. (Yellow Cards) Smiglewski K. (Injury)

There will not play in Stal Mielec: Ehmann M. (Injury) Pajnowski K. (Injury)

There are questionable in Stal Mielec: Cetnar A. (Injury)

Last 11 head-to-head matches Cracovia won 3 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 16-14.

Including matches at home between the teams Cracovia won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 8-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cracovia Krakow
Polish Cup
24.09.24	Sandecja Nowy Sącz - Cracovia	3:2 ET ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
21.09.24	Puszcza Niepołomice - Cracovia	1:2 ✺
14.09.24	Cracovia - Pogoń Szczecin	2:1 ✺
31.08.24	Radomiak Radom - Cracovia	2:1 ✺
24.08.24	Cracovia - Górnik Zabrze	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 LWWLW
- Stal Mielec
Polish Cup
25.09.24	Korona Kielce - Stal Mielec	2:1 penalties ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
22.09.24	Stal Mielec - Motor Lublin	1:0 ✺
30.08.24	Stal Mielec - Lech Poznań	0:2 ✺
26.08.24	Korona Kielce - Stal Mielec	2:1 ✺
19.08.24	Stal Mielec - Piast Gliwice	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
09.12.23	Cracovia - Stal Mielec	2:2
22.07.23	Stal Mielec - Cracovia	2:2
17.02.23	Cracovia - Stal Mielec	2:1
05.08.22	Stal Mielec - Cracovia	2:0
01.04.22	Stal Mielec - Cracovia	1:2
02.10.21	Cracovia - Stal Mielec	3:3
19.02.21	Stal Mielec - Cracovia	0:0

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