Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie A - Round 16

Date: 11 July 2024, Thursday

Location: Estádio Heriberto Hülse (Criciúma)

Referee: Daronco A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Chile	MEGOGO
World	Amazon Prime Video, Fanatiz


	Criciúma		Fluminense

	1	X	2
	2	3.2	4.2	Watch
	2.05	3.3	3.9
	1.95	3.4	4
	2.04	3.41	4.05
	2	3.32	4.03	Watch
	1.91	3.3	3.9
	1.97	3.42	3.96	Watch
	1.95	3.2	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↓ (2.4)	3.32 ↑ (3.28)	4.01 ↑ (2.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Criciúma
47.8%

Draw
28.6%

Fluminense
23.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.4%

28.9%

31.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.8%

29.3%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Criciúma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Criciúma's performance.

Fluminense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Fluminense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Criciúma than the current prediction. (-9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Criciúma that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (+8.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Fluminense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
79.3%	13.8%	6.9%

Criciúma - Fluminense Predictions

Users Predictions: 29 users predict this event. Criciúma will win (votes: 23 - 79.3%). Fluminense will win (votes: 2 - 6.9%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 13.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Criciúma: 64.6% – 94%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gustavo (G) 27. Claudinho 3. Rodrigo (C) 4. Angel W. 22. Marcelo Hermes 88. Gustavo Barreto 8. Newton 17. Matheusinho 150. Fellipe Mateus 11. Bolasie Y. 45. Arthur Caike	1. Fabio (C) 2. Samuel Xavier 25. Antonio Carlos 29. Thiago Santos 6. Diogo Barbosa 7. Andre 8. Martinelli 10. PH Ganso 77. Marquinhos 9. John Kennedy 11. Keno
Substitutes
25. Alisson (G) 2. Allano 30. Barcia M. 23. Citadin E. 31. Eliel Costa 29. Figueiredo T. 5. Higor Meritao 21. Joao Carlos 10. Marquinhos Gabriel 6. Ronald Lopes 14. Trauco M. 33. Walisson Maia	5. Alexsander 90. Douglas Costa 53. Esquerdinha 27. Felipe Alves (G) 13. Felipe Andrade 22. Gabriel Pires 23. Guga 19. Kaua Elias 46. Lucas Justen 17. Lucumi J. 20. Renato Augusto 98. Vitor Eudes (G)
Coaches
Claudio Tencati	Mano Menezes

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45', Andre 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
53', 1 - 0, Matheusinho ⚽,
61', Keno ↓, Lucumi J. ↑,
61', John Kennedy ↓, Kaua Elias ↑,
74', Martinelli ↓, Alexsander ↑,
74', Fellipe Mateus ↓, Trauco M. ↑,
75', Arthur Caike ↓, Citadin E. ↑,
83', Claudinho ↓, Ronald Lopes ↑,
83', Matheusinho ↓, Marquinhos Gabriel ↑,
84', Diogo Barbosa ↓, Esquerdinha ↑,
84', Marquinhos ↓, Douglas Costa ↑,
89', 1 - 1, Kaua Elias ⚽,
90+2', Marcelo Hermes ↓, Allano ↑,
90+5', Newton 🟨,
90+6', Ronald Lopes 🟨,

Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 14 and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Criciúma won 1.

Recent matches Criciúma is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Fluminense has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Fluminense could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Criciúma is a favorite.

There will not play in Criciúma: Jonathan (Injury)

There will not play in Fluminense: Lele (Injury) Lima (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Criciúma: Figueiredo T. (Injury)

Last 10 head-to-head matches Criciúma won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 13-24.

Including matches at home between the teams Criciúma won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Criciúma EC
Brazilian Serie A
07.07.24	Vitória Salvador - Criciúma	2:1 ✺
03.07.24	Criciúma - Cruzeiro	1:0 ✺
30.06.24	Criciúma - Internacional RS	1:1 ✺
27.06.24	São Paulo - Criciúma	2:1 ✺
22.06.24	Criciúma - Botafogo RJ	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 LWTLW
- Fluminense RJ
Brazilian Serie A
07.07.24	Fortaleza - Fluminense	1:0 ✺
04.07.24	Fluminense - Internacional RS	1:1 ✺
30.06.24	Grêmio - Fluminense	1:0 ✺
27.06.24	Fluminense - Vitória Salvador	0:1 ✺
23.06.24	Fluminense - Flamengo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Copa do Brasil
31.07.21	Fluminense - Criciúma	3:0
27.07.21	Criciúma - Fluminense	2:1
15.03.17	Fluminense - Criciúma	3:2
09.03.17	Criciúma - Fluminense	1:1
Brazilian Primeira Liga
24.01.17	Fluminense - Criciúma	3:2
10.03.16	Fluminense - Criciúma	2:0
Brazilian Serie A
18.10.14	Fluminense - Criciúma	4:2

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