Match Info

NIFL Premiership - Round 23

Date: 30 December 2025, Tuesday

Location: Seaview (Belfast)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Crusaders		Carrick Rangers

	1	X	2
	2.62	3.5	2.35
	2.59	3.74	2.31	Watch
	2.75	3.4	2.38
	2.62	3.42	2.29
	2.66	3.5	2.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.65 ↑ (2.59)	3.51 ↓ (3.62)	2.33 ↓ (2.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Crusaders
34.6%

Draw
26.1%

Carrick Rangers
39.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.6%

25.4%

39%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.2%

24.3%

37.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Crusaders has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Carrick Rangers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Crusaders than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carrick Rangers than the current prediction. (-2%)

Crusaders - Carrick Rangers Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Crusaders (1.89) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Crusaders (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Dibaga M. (G) 42. Anderson L. 43. Barr L. 9. Brooks A. 19. Bryden F. 25. Clarke R. 11. Dunlop E. 12. Easton E. 15. O'Rourke J. 10. Thorndike F. 16. Williamson J.	1. Gartside N. (G) 4. Burns B. 9. Gibson D. 22. Heatley P. 10. Lecky A. 12. McCullough L. 25. McKay R. 26. Scott J. 24. Snoddy M. 14. Steele A. 7. Waide R.
Substitutes
54. Beattie C. 14. Forsythe J. 3. Hamilton B. 8. Jewitt-White H. 20. Mccart O. 21. Nixon S. 33. Tuffey J. (G)	18. Boyd J. 15. Buchanan-Rolleston B. 23. Glendinning R. . Hawthorne C. 27. James C. 29. McCawl E. 13. Pengelly S. (G)
Coaches
Caddell D.	Baxter S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
18', 🟨,
25', 1 - 0, Bryden F. ⚽,
30', 🟨,
31', 1 - 1, Scott J. ⚽,
35', 🟨,
36', 1 - 2, Burns B. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Gartside N. ↓, Pengelly S. ↑,
48', 2 - 2, Forsythe K. ⚽,
59', Snoddy M. 🟨,
66', 🟨,
90+1', 🟨,
90+3', Easton E. 🟥,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 10 in the zone NIFL Premiership (Relegation Group: ) and 11 in the zone NIFL Premiership (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Crusaders won 2.

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Crusaders won 13 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 48:22. (average 2.4:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Crusaders won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 25:10. (average 2.8:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Crusaders FC
Northern Irish Premiership
26.12.25	Cliftonville - Crusaders	1:2 ✺
20.12.25	Crusaders - Larne	0:1 ✺
13.12.25	Linfield - Crusaders	4:0 ✺
06.12.25	Crusaders - Portadown	0:4 ✺
29.11.25	Crusaders - Coleraine	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WLLLL
- Carrick Rangers
Northern Irish Premiership
26.12.25	Carrick Rangers - Larne	1:2 ✺
20.12.25	Ballymena United - Carrick Rangers	1:1 ✺
13.12.25	Carrick Rangers - Dungannon Swifts	3:3 ✺
06.12.25	Coleraine - Carrick Rangers	3:1 ✺
29.11.25	Linfield - Carrick Rangers	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Northern Irish Premiership
08.11.25	Carrick Rangers - Crusaders	1:2
09.08.25	Crusaders - Carrick Rangers	3:4
30.12.24	Carrick Rangers - Crusaders	0:0
16.11.24	Carrick Rangers - Crusaders	3:0
31.08.24	Crusaders - Carrick Rangers	2:1
01.05.24	Crusaders - Carrick Rangers	3:1
30.12.23	Crusaders - Carrick Rangers	2:0

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