Match Info

EUROPE: EUROPA CONFERENCE LEAGUE - QUALIFICATION - QUARTER-FINALS

Date: 27 July 2023, Thursday

Location: Seaview (Belfast)

Referee: Manouhos E. (Gre)


	Crusaders		Rosenborg

	1	X	2
	3.8	3.4	1.83	Watch
	3.7	3.4	1.9
	3.85	3.5	1.92
	3.7	3.6	1.94
	4.14	3.69	1.83
	4.15	3.66	1.83
	3.8	3.55	2.01
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.88 ↓ (7.43)	3.54 ↓ (4.46)	1.89 ↑ (1.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Crusaders
24.1%

Draw
26.4%

Rosenborg
49.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

12.4%

20.7%

66.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.8%

16.2%

52.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Crusaders has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Crusaders's performance.

Rosenborg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-17.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Rosenborg might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Crusaders than the current prediction. (-8.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Crusaders that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rosenborg than the current prediction. (+3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
29.2%	4.2%	66.7%

Crusaders - Rosenborg Predictions

Users Predictions: 24 users predict this event. Crusaders will win (votes: 7 - 29.2%). Rosenborg will win (votes: 16 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 4.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Rosenborg: 47.8% – 85.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Tuffey J. (G) 23. McKeown R. 2. Burns B. (C) 7. Lowry P. 20. Larmour D. 8. Kennedy B. 22. Heatley P. 25. Clarke R. 14. Forsythe J. 9. Lecky A. 15. O'Rourke J.	1. Hansen A. (G) 2. Reitan E. (C) 15. Rogers S. 23. Jenssen U. 19. Pereira A. 18. Bjorlo M. 8. Borkeeiet T. 20. Tagseth E. 10. Holse C. 9. Saeter O. 11. Nelson J.
Substitutes
42. Anderson L. 28. Boyd J. 29. Burns C. 17. Kennedy M. 41. Kerr R. (G) 18. Owens J. 21. Smith M. 11. Teelan J. 6. Weir R. 1. Williamson J. (G) 19. Winchester J.	32. Cornic L. 44. Holte M. 41. Nypan S. 16. Rosten H. 22. Sadiku A. 5. Skjelbred P. 24. Tangvik S. (G) 6. Vaananen S.
Coaches
Baxter S.	Maalen S.

Preview

1st leg.

Crusaders is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Rosenborg is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Rosenborg could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Rosenborg is a favorite.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Crusaders won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 3-13.

Including matches at home between the teams Crusaders won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Crusaders FC
UEFA Europa Conference League
20.07.23	Crusaders - Haka	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
15.07.23	Crusaders - Glasgow Rangers B	1:3 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
13.07.23	Haka - Crusaders	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
08.07.23	Crusaders - Dundela	2:0 ✺
Northern Irish Charity Shield
01.07.23	Larne - Crusaders	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.4 WLTWW
- Rosenborg BK
Norwegian Eliteserien
23.07.23	Strømsgodset - Rosenborg	0:1 ✺
16.07.23	Rosenborg - Tromsø	2:1 ✺
09.07.23	Rosenborg - Lillestrøm SK	1:2 ✺
02.07.23	Aalesunds - Rosenborg	1:0 ✺
25.06.23	Rosenborg - Sarpsborg 08	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
11.07.13	Rosenborg - Crusaders	7:2
04.07.13	Crusaders - Rosenborg	1:2
12.07.12	Rosenborg - Crusaders	1:0

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