Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 9

Date: 17 September 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Francisco Zarco (Durango)

Referee: Guzman M. (Mex)


	Alacranes de Durango		Cruz Azul Hidalgo

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.73	3.50	3.90
	1.9	3.4	3.55	Watch
	1.96	3.6	4.02
	1.81	3.81	4.02	Watch
	1.94	3.35	3.95
	1.94	3.49	3.73	Watch
	1.93	3.45	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↑ (1.69)	3.51 ↓ (4.04)	3.8 ↓ (4.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alacranes de Durango
49.2%

Draw
26.4%

Cruz Azul Hidalgo
24.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.2%

23.1%

21.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.9%

22%

20.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alacranes de Durango has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alacranes de Durango's form might have worsened.

Cruz Azul Hidalgo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alacranes de Durango than the current prediction. (+8.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alacranes de Durango, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cruz Azul Hidalgo than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Alacranes de Durango - Cruz Azul Hidalgo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Munoz J. (G) 21. Oteo D. 35. Flores S. (C) 4. Munoz J. 2. Garcia A. 5. Cantu E. 16. Dominguez R. 17. Reyes Olguin J. I. 30. Escoboza A. 10. Gonzalez J. 27. Angulo J.	13. Rodriguez R. (G) 70. Silva I. 66. Suarez J. (C) 67. Mendoza J. 49. Diaz J. 56. Montes J. 68. Valdivia C. 50. Gonzalez K. 58. Sanchez E. 47. De Los Rios S. 14. Calero J.
Substitutes
20. Castillo J. 7. Gutierrez L. 14. Lorona L. 12. Lozano M. 8. Montano T. 13. Ontiveros A. 33. Pelaez A. (G) 23. Siqueiros C. 19. Valenzuela A. 6. Vega Hernandez C.	258. Castaneda E. 69. Cubillas A. 113. Espinosa S. 92. Garcia A. 44. Leon C. 62. Rodriguez E. 61. Salgado B. (G) 53. Taboada V. 57. Valdez D.
Coaches
Real H.	Landazabal E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Reyes Olguin J. I. ⚽, Oteo D. (A),
23', Montes J. 🟨,
25', Silva I. 🟨,
30', Garcia A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Gonzalez J. ↓, Lorona L. ↑,
54', Silva I. ↓, Cubillas A. ↑,
54', Montes J. ↓, Valdez D. ↑,
59', Gonzalez K. 🟨,
63', Gonzalez K. ↓, Leon C. ↑,
63', Valdivia C. ↓, Taboada V. ↑,
65', Taboada V. 🟨,
66', Angulo J. ↓, Gutierrez L. ↑,
67', Diaz J. 🟥,
70', Garcia A. ↓, Ontiveros A. ↑,
73', Cantu E. 🟨,
78', Reyes Olguin J. I. ↓, Valenzuela A. ↑,
78', Escoboza A. ↓, Vega Hernandez C. ↑,
78', Calero J. ↓, Castaneda E. ↑,
80', Ontiveros A. 🟨,
85', 2 - 0, Gutierrez L. ⚽, Ontiveros A. (A),
86', Cubillas A. 🟨,
87', Valenzuela A. 🟨,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 14 and 15).

Alacranes de Durango is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Cruz Azul Hidalgo's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Alacranes de Durango is considered a favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Alacranes de Durango won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Including home match between the teams, Alacranes de Durango won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Alacranes de Durango	11	5	2	4	11:11	0	17
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	11	1	5	5	11:18	-7	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alacranes de Durango
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
10.09.26	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Alacranes de Durango	1:0 ✺
04.09.26	Alacranes de Durango - Tlaxcala	1:1 ✺
28.08.26	Correcaminos UAT - Alacranes de Durango	0:0 ✺
22.08.26	Alacranes de Durango - Leones Negros UdeG	1:2 ✺
15.08.26	Cancún - Alacranes de Durango	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LTTLL
- Cruz Azul Hidalgo
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
11.09.26	Cruz Azul Hidalgo - Piratas de Veracruz	1:1 ✺
05.09.26	Cancún - Cruz Azul Hidalgo	6:0 ✺
29.08.26	Cruz Azul Hidalgo - Tepatitlán de Morelos	6:0 ✺
21.08.26	Atlético La Paz - Cruz Azul Hidalgo	1:1 ✺
15.08.26	Cruz Azul Hidalgo - Atlético Morelia	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 TLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga Premier Serie A
02.05.21	Cruz Azul Hidalgo - Alacranes de Durango	1:1
29.04.21	Alacranes de Durango - Cruz Azul Hidalgo	1:1

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