Match Info

Club Friendly

Date: 4 July 2026, Saturday


	Cruzeiro		Defensor Sporting

	1	X	2
	1.46	4.10	5.50
	1.50	4.20	4.90
	1.49	4.12	6.07
	1.12	7.41	20.38	Watch
	1.40	4.05	6.00
	1.46	4.33	6.60	Watch
	1.46	4.20	5.60
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.41 ↓ (1.47)	4.63 ↑ (4.2)	7.86 ↑ (5.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cruzeiro
67.3%

Draw
20.6%

Defensor Sporting
12.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.4%

21.8%

15.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.8%

21%

15.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cruzeiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

Defensor Sporting has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cruzeiro than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Defensor Sporting than the current prediction. (+3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Cruzeiro - Defensor Sporting Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
81. Otavio Costa (G) 11. Gerson 43. Joao Marcelo 19. Kaio Jorge 57. Lelis R. 8. Matheus Henrique 10. Matheus Pereira 27. Rojas G. 17. Sinisterra L. 25. Villalba L. 12. William Furtado	12. Dawson K. (G) 11. Agazzi L. 6. Amaro M. 5. Barrios G. 20. Caballero M. 30. Cuello E. 3. De los Santos G. 15. Frugone A. 9. Machado A. 26. Montenegro B. 8. Wunsch N.
Substitutes
9. Bruno Rodrigues 60. Carvalho G. 84. Coutinho K. 58. Eduardo Pape 15. Fabricio Bruno 23. Fagner 38. Felipe Morais 34. Jonathan Jesus 2. Kaua Moraes 51. Lamounier V. (G) 16. Lucas Silva 24. Marcelo Eraclito (G) 7. Marquinhos 35. Murilo Rhikman 29. Romero L. 49. Ruan Indio 22. Villarreal N.	18. Alonso E. 33. Bruschi S. 32. Casco M. 97. Goicochea Del Carpio J. P. 27. Juan Jorge 1. Machado L. (G) 2. Martinez D. 28. Navarro L. 16. Perdomo A. 4. Rodriguez G. 23. Simone B. (G) 22. Torterolo A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
40', 1 - 0, Kaio Jorge ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Lelis R. ↓, Felipe Morais ↑,
46', Otavio Costa ↓, Lamounier V. ↑,
61', Machado A. ↓, Torterolo A. ↑,
61', Cuello E. ↓, Rodriguez G. ↑,
71', Wunsch N. ↓, Goicochea Del Carpio J. P. ↑,
71', Agazzi L. ↓, Juan Jorge ↑,
71', Montenegro B. ↓, Navarro L. ↑,
73', Lucas Silva 🟨,
73', 🟨,
90', 2 - 0, Felipe Morais ⚽,

Preview

Cruzeiro is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Defensor Sporting has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Cruzeiro is the clear favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Cruzeiro won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:4. (average 1:2).

Including home match between the teams, Cruzeiro won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Cruzeiro - the odds 1.47 are the expected chance of winning is 62.42%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cruzeiro MG
Brazilian Serie A
31.05.26	Cruzeiro - Fluminense	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
28.05.26	Cruzeiro - Barcelona Guayaquil	4:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
24.05.26	Cruzeiro - Chapecoense	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
19.05.26	Boca Juniors - Cruzeiro	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
16.05.26	Palmeiras - Cruzeiro	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 TWWTT
- Defensor Sporting
Uruguayan Primera Division
07.06.26	Defensor Sporting - Boston River	1:1 ✺
30.05.26	Racing Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	0:0 ✺
24.05.26	Defensor Sporting - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:2 ✺
17.05.26	Central Español - Defensor Sporting	2:1 ✺
10.05.26	Defensor Sporting - Juventud de Las Piedras	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 TTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
20.03.14	Cruzeiro - Defensor Sporting	2:2
11.03.14	Defensor Sporting - Cruzeiro	2:0

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