Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 16

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Allianz Parque (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Sampaio S. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	ESPN 2, Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports
Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2
Portugal	Canal 11
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Usa	Fanatiz


	Palmeiras		Cruzeiro

	1	X	2
	1.66	3.75	5	Watch
	1.7	3.55	4.95	Watch
	1.74	3.71	5.36
	1.71	3.69	5.1	Watch
	1.67	3.4	5
	1.72	3.71	5.3	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↑ (1.69)	3.64 (3.64)	5.12 ↓ (5.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Palmeiras
55.6%

Draw
26%

Cruzeiro
18.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.2%

26.1%

17.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.1%

25.2%

17.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Palmeiras has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Cruzeiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cruzeiro than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
91.7%	0%	8.3%

Palmeiras - Cruzeiro Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Palmeiras (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Palmeiras will win (11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.03% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Carlos Miguel (G) 4. Giay A. 15. Gomez G. (C) 26. Murilo 56. Arthur Gabriel 11. Arias J. 8. Andreas Pereira 17. Marlon Freitas 7. Felipe Anderson 19. Sosa R. 42. Lopez J.	81. Otavio Costa (G) 23. Fagner 15. Fabricio Bruno 34. Jonathan Jesus 6. Kaiki 11. Gerson 29. Romero L. (C) 88. Christian 10. Matheus Pereira 99. Arroyo K. 19. Kaio Jorge
Substitutes
45. Erick Bele 6. Jefte 12. Khellven 48. Larson 30. Lucas Evangelista 31. Luighi 50. Luis Pacheco 14. Marcelo Lomba (G) 32. Martinez E. 18. Mauricio 10. Paulinho 37. Riquelme Fillipi	91. Chico 77. Japa 43. Joao Marcelo 2. Kaua Moraes 70. Kenji 16. Lucas Silva 7. Marquinhos 31. Matheus Cunha (G) 40. Rhuan Gabriel 17. Sinisterra L. 25. Villalba L. 94. Wanderson
Coaches
Abel Ferreira	Artur Jorge

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
11', 0 - 1, Arroyo K. ⚽, Christian (A),
11', Arroyo K. 🟨,
17', Sosa R. ↓, Mauricio ↑,
20', 1 - 1, Felipe Anderson ⚽,
41', Matheus Pereira 🟨,
44', Felipe Anderson ↓, Lucas Evangelista ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
72', Lopez J. 🟨,
75', Otavio Costa 🟨,
75', Arroyo K. ↓, Kenji ↑,
77', Andreas Pereira ↓, Paulinho ↑,
77', Arthur Gabriel ↓, Jefte ↑,
77', Giay A. ↓, Khellven ↑,
88', Murilo 🟨,
89', Matheus Pereira ↓, Sinisterra L. ↑,
90', Christian ↓, Lucas Silva ↑,
90+2', Lucas Silva 🟨,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 2.

Now, both teams are in good form.

Palmeiras may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Palmeiras has had a series of away games.

In this match, Palmeiras is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Palmeiras: Allan Elias (Yellow Cards) Piquerez J. (Knee Injury) Vitor Roque (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Cruzeiro: Cassio (Knee Injury) Kaua Prates (Inactive)

There are questionable in Palmeiras: Andreas Pereira (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 7 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 26:22. (average 1.3:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Palmeiras won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:8. (average 1.3:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Palmeiras	29	17	9	3	48:21	27	60
5	Cruzeiro	29	14	6	9	44:40	4	48

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Palmeiras
Copa do Brasil
13.05.26	Jacuipense - Palmeiras	1:4 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
10.05.26	Remo - Palmeiras	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
05.05.26	Sporting Cristal - Palmeiras	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
02.05.26	Palmeiras - Santos	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
29.04.26	Cerro Porteño - Palmeiras	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 WTWTT
- Cruzeiro MG
Copa do Brasil
12.05.26	Cruzeiro - Goiás	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
09.05.26	Bahia - Cruzeiro	1:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
06.05.26	Universidad Católica - Cruzeiro	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
02.05.26	Cruzeiro - Atlético Mineiro	1:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
28.04.26	Cruzeiro - Boca Juniors	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
26.10.25	Palmeiras - Cruzeiro	0:0
01.06.25	Cruzeiro - Palmeiras	2:1
04.12.24	Cruzeiro - Palmeiras	1:2
20.07.24	Palmeiras - Cruzeiro	2:0
06.12.23	Cruzeiro - Palmeiras	1:1
14.08.23	Palmeiras - Cruzeiro	1:0
08.12.19	Cruzeiro - Palmeiras	0:2

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