Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Torneo Intermedio - Round 3

Date: 30 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Osvaldo Roberto (Montevideo)

Referee: Ostojich E. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Racing Montevideo		Defensor Sporting

	1	X	2
	2.05	3	3.6	Watch
	2.05	3.05	3.6
	2.13	3.11	4.05
	2.02	3.35	3.69	Watch
	2.05	2.9	3.8
	2.05	3.08	3.89	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↑ (1.85)	3.08 ↓ (3.3)	3.77 ↓ (4.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Racing Montevideo
45.2%

Draw
30.2%

Defensor Sporting
24.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.5%

28.3%

21.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.2%

27.4%

20.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Racing Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Racing Montevideo's form might have worsened.

Defensor Sporting has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Racing Montevideo than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Racing Montevideo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Defensor Sporting than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	14.3%	0%

Racing Montevideo - Defensor Sporting Predictions

Users Predictions: Racing Montevideo will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Varese F. (G) 4. Cotugno G. 3. Brazionis 13. Alvarez F. 17. Ferreira M. 11. Suarez F. 8. Cairus F. 21. Alvarez Wallace A. 39. Vazquez A. 18. Habib T. 10. Da Silva E.	12. Dawson K. (G) 11. Agazzi L. 14. Sorondo F. 3. De los Santos G. 15. Frugone A. 6. Amaro M. 5. Barrios G. 24. de los Santos L. 8. Wunsch N. 9. Machado A. 26. Montenegro B.
Substitutes
5. Bosca J. 15. Cheuquepal D. 33. Da Silva S. 14. De Los Santos E. 19. Dudok R. 27. Loprete L. 1. Machado F. (G) 81. Manzur I. 23. Sosa N. 7. Varela J.	25. Abella D. 18. Alonso E. 33. Bruschi S. 77. Castro F. 30. Cuello E. 97. Goicochea Del Carpio J. P. 27. Juan Jorge 1. Machado L. (G) 2. Martinez D. 28. Navarro L.
Coaches
Chambian C.	Cuello R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Suarez F. ↓, Da Silva S. ↑,
67', Wunsch N. ↓, Juan Jorge ↑,
67', Habib T. ↓, Sosa N. ↑,
76', Machado A. ↓, Castro F. ↑,
85', Vazquez A. ↓, Dudok R. ↑,
86', Da Silva E. ↓, De Los Santos E. ↑,
88', Barrios G. ↓, Cuello E. ↑,
90+2', Amaro M. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Racing won 1.

Racing has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Defensor Sporting is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Racing may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Racing is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Racing won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 17:33. (average 0.9:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Racing won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 8:12. (average 0.7:1.1).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Racing Montevideo	9	3	3	3	9:8	1	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Racing Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
22.05.26	Liverpool Montevideo - Racing Montevideo	0:0 ✺
17.05.26	Racing Montevideo - Cerro Largo	1:0 ✺
09.05.26	Central Español - Racing Montevideo	2:0 ✺
03.05.26	Racing Montevideo - Montevideo City Torque	1:1 ✺
26.04.26	Cerro Largo - Racing Montevideo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 TWLTW
- Defensor Sporting
Uruguayan Primera Division
24.05.26	Defensor Sporting - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:2 ✺
17.05.26	Central Español - Defensor Sporting	2:1 ✺
10.05.26	Defensor Sporting - Juventud de Las Piedras	1:2 ✺
04.05.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	1:1 ✺
27.04.26	Defensor Sporting - Progreso	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
18.04.26	Racing Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	1:1
17.08.25	Racing Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	0:1
15.02.25	Defensor Sporting - Racing Montevideo	2:0
Uruguay Copa
24.10.24	Defensor Sporting - Racing Montevideo	1:0
Uruguayan Primera Division
13.09.24	Defensor Sporting - Racing Montevideo	1:2
22.06.24	Racing Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	0:1
02.03.24	Racing Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	1:2

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