Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Sudamericana - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 23 October 2024, Wednesday

Location: Mineirão (Belo Horizonte)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2, Moja TV
Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Paramount+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
Chile	ESPN
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
France	L'Equipe Live Foot
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 8
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 4
Netherlands	ESPN 3
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Peru	ESPN
Poland	Polsat Sport 1
Portugal	Sport TV1
Russia	Okko Sport
Slovenia	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1 Premium
Spain	beIN Sports, LaLiga+
Turkey	S Sport 2, S Sport+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
Venezuela	ESPN, Inter
World	DirecTV Sports, Disney+, Fanatiz, LaLiga+ app


	Cruzeiro		Lanús

	1	X	2
	1.6	3.7	6.5	Watch
	1.6	3.6	6
	1.62	3.75	6.5	Watch
	1.62	3.73	6.89
	1.56	3.64	7.47	Watch
	1.53	3.6	5.8	Watch
	1.62	3.7	6.06	Watch
	1.62	3.75	6.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.6 ↓ (1.69)	3.68 ↑ (3.61)	6.47 ↑ (5.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

Watch this match and Copa Sudamericana with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: beIN SPORTS

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Current Win Probability

Cruzeiro
59.5%

Draw
25.8%

Lanús
14.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.8%

26.1%

18.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.8%

24.8%

17.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cruzeiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Lanús has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cruzeiro than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lanús than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.8%	9.1%	9.1%

Cruzeiro - Lanús Predictions

Users Predictions: Cruzeiro will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.03% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cassio (G) 12. William Furtado (C) 43. Joao Marcelo 25. Villalba L. 3. Marlon 97. Matheus Henrique 20. Walace 30. Gabriel Veron 10. Matheus Pereira 21. Barreal A. 9. Kaio Jorge	26. Losada N. (G) 20. Cabrera B. 5. Izquierdoz C. (C) 4. Perez G. 22. Soler J. C. 29. Pena Biafore F. 8. Boggio L. 24. Caceres J. 10. Marcelino Moreno 32. Carrera R. 9. Bou W.
Substitutes
98. Anderson (G) 34. Jonathan Jesus 6. Kaiki 41. Leo Aragao (G) 16. Lucas Silva 7. Mateus Vital 33. Peralta F. 8. Rafa Silva 17. Ramiro 22. Vitinho 2. Wesley Gasolina 5. Ze Ivaldo	7. Acosta L. 1. Aguerre A. (G) 40. Alvarez F. 25. Aquino D. 34. Cardozo L. 18. Diaz L. 14. Gerez M. 33. Irusta L. 28. Ontivero O. 17. Rodriguez A. 27. Torres J.
Coaches
Fernando Diniz	Zielinski R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45', Carrera R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Villalba L. ↓, Mateus Vital ↑,
46', Cabrera B. ↓, Aquino D. ↑,
50', 1 - 0, Kaio Jorge ⚽,
55', Pena Biafore F. 🟨,
69', Ramiro 🟨,
73', 1 - 1, Carrera R. ⚽, Marcelino Moreno (A),
78', Barreal A. ↓, Kaiki ↑,
81', Gabriel Veron ↓, Vitinho ↑,
87', Carrera R. ↓, Acosta L. ↑,
87', Bou W. ↓, Torres J. ↑,
90+4', Acosta L. 🟨,
90+7', Matheus Henrique ↓, Peralta F. ↑,

Preview

1st leg.

Lanús is Qualified for Copa Sudamericana (Play Offs 1/8~finals)

Recent matches Cruzeiro is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Lanús is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Cruzeiro is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cruzeiro MG
Brazilian Serie A
18.10.24	Cruzeiro - Bahia	1:1 ✺
03.10.24	Fluminense - Cruzeiro	1:0 ✺
29.09.24	Cruzeiro - Vasco da Gama	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
26.09.24	Cruzeiro - Libertad Asuncion	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
22.09.24	Cuiabá - Cruzeiro	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 TLTTT
- CA Lanús
Argentinian Liga Profesional
18.10.24	Lanús - Independiente	0:2 ✺
05.10.24	Newells Old Boys - Lanús	2:1 ✺
30.09.24	Lanús - Gimnasia La Plata	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
25.09.24	Independiente Medellín - Lanús	1:2 penalties ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
22.09.24	Huracán Buenos Aires - Lanús	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LLTWL

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