Match Info

Copa Betano do Brasil - 1/16-finals

Date: 1 May 2025, Thursday

Location: Mineirão (Belo Horizonte)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Canais Globo, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Cruzeiro		Vila Nova

	1	X	2
	1.5	3.9	7
	1.44	3.9	6
	1.47	3.95	7.4
	1.5	3.91	7.87
	1.48	3.88	7.69	Watch
	1.44	3.9	6.5
	1.48	3.92	7.65
	1.47	3.95	7.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↑ (1.33)	3.91 ↓ (4.67)	7.19 ↓ (8.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cruzeiro
63.2%

Draw
23.8%

Vila Nova
13%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.5%

19.9%

10.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.7%

16.2%

13%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cruzeiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Cruzeiro's form might have worsened.

Vila Nova has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cruzeiro than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Cruzeiro that the model has picked up on.

The ML Model estimate for Vila Nova aligns with the current prediction.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Cruzeiro - Vila Nova Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cassio (G) 12. William Furtado 15. Fabricio Bruno 25. Villalba L. 6. Kaiki 29. Romero L. (C) 21. Eduardo 9. Gabriel Barbosa 88. Christian 17. Marquinhos 19. Kaio Jorge	99. Halls (G) 2. Elias 3. Tiago Pagnussat (C) 4. Bernardo Schappo 13. Willian Formiga 27. Igor Henrique 18. Arilson 5. Joao Vieira 96. Labandeira F. 29. Junior Todinho 9. Gabriel Poveda
Substitutes
11. Bolasie Y. 99. Dinenno J. 23. Fagner 34. Jonathan Jesus 36. Kaua Prates 70. Kenji 41. Leo Aragao (G) 16. Lucas Silva 10. Matheus Pereira 75. Rodriguinho 5. Walace 94. Wanderson	10. Diego Torres 19. Gabriel Silva 16. Higor 6. Igor Inocencio 15. Paulinho 8. Ralf 1. Victor Hugo (G) 11. Vinicius Paiva 14. Walisson Maia
Coaches
Jardim L.	Rafael Lacerda

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
6', Romero L. 🟨,
7', Igor Henrique 🟨,
25', Gabriel Poveda 🟨,
34', 1 - 0, Kaio Jorge ⚽, Romero L. (A),
37', 2 - 0, Kaio Jorge ⚽, Gabriel Barbosa (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Labandeira F. ↓, Gabriel Silva ↑,
46', Junior Todinho ↓, Vinicius Paiva ↑,
62', Kaio Jorge ↓, Wanderson ↑,
62', Kaiki ↓, Lucas Silva ↑,
62', Christian ↓, Fagner ↑,
64', Arilson ↓, Paulinho ↑,
64', Igor Henrique ↓, Diego Torres ↑,
68', Romero L. ↓, Matheus Pereira ↑,
78', Gabriel Barbosa ↓, Dinenno J. ↑,
84', Elias ↓, Igor Inocencio ↑,

Preview

1st leg./

Recent performances by Cruzeiro have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Vila Nova is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Cruzeiro may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Cruzeiro is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Cruzeiro won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 0.8:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Cruzeiro won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cruzeiro MG
Brazilian Serie A
27.04.25	Cruzeiro - Vasco da Gama	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
24.04.25	Palestino - Cruzeiro	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
20.04.25	Red Bull Bragantino - Cruzeiro	1:0 ✺
17.04.25	Cruzeiro - Bahia	3:0 ✺
13.04.25	São Paulo - Cruzeiro	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WLLWT
- Vila Nova FC
Brazilian Serie B
25.04.25	Vila Nova - Chapecoense	1:0 ✺
20.04.25	Vila Nova - Botafogo SP	2:0 ✺
17.04.25	Goiás - Vila Nova	2:2 ✺
12.04.25	Vila Nova - Paysandu	1:0 ✺
05.04.25	Coritiba - Vila Nova	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WWTWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
14.10.22	Vila Nova - Cruzeiro	1:0
01.07.22	Cruzeiro - Vila Nova	2:0
01.11.21	Cruzeiro - Vila Nova	1:1
24.07.21	Vila Nova - Cruzeiro	0:0

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