Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 8

Date: 11 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho (Recife)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball


	Sport Recife		Cruzeiro

	1	X	2
	2.63	3	2.9	Watch
	2.6	3.1	2.85
	2.6	3	2.9
	2.67	3.08	2.99
	2.66	3.04	2.9	Watch
	2.45	3	3.1
	2.66	3.05	2.84	Watch
	2.62	3.05	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.61 ↑ (2.22)	3.04 ↓ (3.23)	2.91 ↓ (3.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sport Recife
36.3%

Draw
31.2%

Cruzeiro
32.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.5%

29.3%

28.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.2%

31.2%

26.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sport Recife has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sport Recife's form might have worsened.

Cruzeiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sport Recife than the current prediction. (+8.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sport Recife, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cruzeiro than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Cruzeiro, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	11.1%	77.8%

Sport Recife - Cruzeiro Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Recife will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Cruzeiro will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cruzeiro: 50.6% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Cruzeiro (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Cruzeiro (3.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Recife (1.90) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Recife (votes: 1 - 20%). Cruzeiro (votes: 4 - 80%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Caique Franca (C) 33. Matheus Alexandre 6. Silva J. 44. Chico 16. Igor Carius 14. Rivera C. 37. Du Queiroz 17. Carlos Alberto 30. Chrystian Barletta 27. Oliveira S. 92. Pablo	1. Cassio (G) 23. Fagner 15. Fabricio Bruno 25. Villalba L. 6. Kaiki 21. Eduardo 16. Lucas Silva (C) 88. Christian 10. Matheus Pereira 94. Wanderson 19. Kaio Jorge
Substitutes
25. Antonio Carlos 38. Arthur Sousa 20. Atencio R. 29. Dalbert 8. Dominguez F. 11. Gustavo Maia 32. Hereda 3. Lucas Cunha 59. Ortiz C. 91. Romarinho 12. Thiago Couto (G) 58. Ze Lucas	11. Bolasie Y. 26. Diaz L. 99. Dinenno J. 9. Gabriel Barbosa 34. Jonathan Jesus 36. Kaua Prates 70. Kenji 41. Leo Aragao (G) 35. Murilo Rhikman 75. Rodriguinho 5. Walace 12. William Furtado
Coaches
Toni Oliveira	Jardim L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
7', 0 - 1, Christian ⚽, Kaiki (A),
18', 0 - 2, Kaio Jorge ⚽, Wanderson (A),
45+1', 0 - 3, Matheus Pereira ⚽, Kaio Jorge (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Matheus Alexandre ↓, Hereda ↑,
46', Carlos Alberto ↓, Atencio R. ↑,
53', 0 - 4, Matheus Pereira ⚽,
62', Kaio Jorge ↓, Gabriel Barbosa ↑,
62', Christian ↓, William Furtado ↑,
69', Du Queiroz ↓, Ze Lucas ↑,
69', Chrystian Barletta ↓, Romarinho ↑,
75', Matheus Pereira ↓, Diaz L. ↑,
75', Villalba L. ↓, Jonathan Jesus ↑,
75', Eduardo ↓, Walace ↑,
75', Igor Carius ↓, Dalbert ↑,
87', Dalbert 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Recife won 1.

Recife has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Cruzeiro is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recife may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Recife: Lucas Lima (Yellow Cards) Paciencia G. (Injury) Rafael Thyere (Injury)

There will not play in Cruzeiro: Joao Marcelo (Knee Injury) Matheus Henrique (Knee Injury) Romero L. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Recife: Oliveira S. (Inactive) Ze Roberto (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Cruzeiro: Japa (Thigh Injury)

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Recife won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 9:16. (average 0.6:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Recife won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:4. (average 0.9:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sport Recife
Brazilian Serie A
03.05.25	Fluminense - Sport Recife	2:1 ✺
26.04.25	Sport Recife - Fortaleza	0:0 ✺
19.04.25	Corinthians - Sport Recife	2:1 ✺
16.04.25	Sport Recife - Red Bull Bragantino	0:1 ✺
12.04.25	Vasco da Gama - Sport Recife	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LTLLL
- Cruzeiro MG
Copa Sudamericana
07.05.25	Mushuc Runa - Cruzeiro	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
04.05.25	Cruzeiro - Flamengo	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
01.05.25	Cruzeiro - Vila Nova	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
27.04.25	Cruzeiro - Vasco da Gama	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
24.04.25	Palestino - Cruzeiro	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 TWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
09.10.22	Sport Recife - Cruzeiro	3:1
28.06.22	Cruzeiro - Sport Recife	2:1
Brazilian Serie A
08.09.18	Sport Recife - Cruzeiro	0:0
13.05.18	Cruzeiro - Sport Recife	2:0
20.08.17	Cruzeiro - Sport Recife	2:0
21.05.17	Sport Recife - Cruzeiro	1:1
16.11.16	Sport Recife - Cruzeiro	0:1

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