Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 11

Date: 6 June 2025, Friday

Location: Arena Pantanal (Cuiabá)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+, RedeTV!, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Cuiabá		Paysandu

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.6	6	Watch
	1.61	3.5	5.5
	1.65	3.4	5.3
	1.65	3.58	6.35
	1.64	3.47	5.94	Watch
	1.61	3.5	6
	1.65	3.55	5.8	Watch
	1.65	3.4	5.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↓ (1.7)	3.5 (3.5)	5.77 ↑ (4.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cuiabá
57.1%

Draw
26.7%

Paysandu
16.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.2%

26.3%

19.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.5%

25.7%

18.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cuiabá has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Paysandu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cuiabá than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paysandu than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	20%	20%

Cuiabá - Paysandu Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Cuiabá will win (votes: 12 - 63.2%). Paysandu will win (votes: 4 - 21.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 15.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cuiabá: 41.5% – 84.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Cuiabá (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Paysandu (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Paysandu (2.20) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Cuiabá (votes: 5 - 50%). Paysandu (votes: 3 - 30%). Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
14. Mateus Pasinato (G) 98. Matheusinho 13. Guilherme Mariano 33. Alan Empereur (C) 2. Leonardo Ataide 27. Denilson Alves 45. De Lucca 8. Max Alves 22. Derik Lacerda 9. Edu 70. Juan Christian	12. Gabriel Mesquita (G) 16. Reverson 4. Luan Freitas 5. Novillo J. 94. Patric Calmon 28. Leandro Vilela 96. Matheus Vargas 20. Marlon Douglas 77. Rossi (C) 9. Benitez J. 30. Marcelinho
Substitutes
3. Bruno Alves 55. Calebe Costa 20. David 12. Guilherme Nogueira (G) 77. Jadson 99. Lucas Cardoso 5. Lucas Eduardo 30. Lucas Mineiro 23. Marcelo Henrique 25. Safira A.	2. Edilson 15. Goncalves P. 14. Henrique R. 31. Iago Hass (G) 32. Monteiro A. 38. Petterson 18. Thalyson 36. Wendel
Coaches
Guto Ferreira	Luizinho Lopes

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
27', Leandro Vilela 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
53', Marlon Douglas 🟨,
57', Juan Christian 🟨,
60', Edu ↓, Alisson Safira ↑,
60', Max Alves ↓, David ↑,
60', Leonardo Ataide ↓, Marcelo Henrique ↑,
63', Patric Calmon ↓, Edilson ↑,
64', Marcelinho ↓, Petterson ↑,
67', Guilherme Mariano 🟨,
73', Benitez J. ↓, Wendel ↑,
75', Wendel 🟨,
76', Denilson Alves ↓, Jadson ↑,
76', Juan Christian ↓, Lucas Mineiro ↑,
82', 1 - 0, Lucas Mineiro ⚽,
87', Marlon Douglas ↓, Monteiro A. ↑,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A Betano and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).

In recent matches, Cuiabá has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Paysandu is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Cuiabá is seen as the favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Cuiabá won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:2. (average 1.3:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Cuiabá won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cuiabá EC
Brazilian Serie B
31.05.25	Athletic Club - Cuiabá	0:2 ✺
26.05.25	Cuiabá - Vila Nova	1:0 ✺
16.05.25	Chapecoense - Cuiabá	2:1 ✺
11.05.25	Cuiabá - Operário Ferroviario	2:3 ✺
06.05.25	CRB Maceio - Cuiabá	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WWLLT
- Paysandu PA
Brazilian Serie B
02.06.25	Paysandu - Criciúma	0:1 ✺
25.05.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Paysandu	3:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
21.05.25	Bahia - Paysandu	4:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
18.05.25	Paysandu - Goiás	0:0 ✺
14.05.25	América Mineiro - Paysandu	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LLLTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa Verde
20.11.19	Paysandu - Cuiabá	0:2 penalties
14.11.19	Cuiabá - Paysandu	0:1
Brazilian Serie C
20.09.14	Paysandu - Cuiabá	1:2

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