Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie A Betano - Round 38

Date: 8 December 2024, Sunday

Location: Arena Pantanal (Cuiabá)

Referee: Gomes T. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Peru	L1 Max
World	Fanatiz


	Cuiabá		Vasco da Gama

	1	X	2
	3.25	3.1	2.45	Watch
	3	3.1	2.5
	3	3.1	2.45
	3.33	3.08	2.47
	3.26	3.04	2.42	Watch
	3.25	3.1	2.25
	3.14	3.2	2.37	Watch
	3	3.1	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.15 ↑ (2.91)	3.1 ↓ (3.15)	2.42 ↓ (2.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cuiabá
30.1%

Draw
30.6%

Vasco da Gama
39.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.5%

30%

37.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.9%

28.8%

36%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cuiabá has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Vasco da Gama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cuiabá than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Cuiabá - Vasco da Gama Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
14. Mateus Pasinato (G) 21. Railan 34. Bruno Alves (C) 44. Gabriel 63. Juan Tavares 27. Denilson Alves 30. Lucas Mineiro 10. Max Alves 22. Derik Lacerda 25. Clayson 77. Jadson	1. Leo Jardim (G) 2. Rodriguez J. 38. Joao Victor 3. Leo 66. Leandrinho 8. Jair 25. Hugo Moura 85. Mateus Carvalho 11. Coutinho 90. Alex Teixeira 99. Vegetti P. (C)
Substitutes
15. Dudu 11. Eliel 49. Kauan Cristtyan 31. Lopes F. (G) 2. Matheus Alexandre 91. Soares L. 20. Souza D.	26. Dominguez M. 21. Jean David 13. Keiller (G) 72. Lopes B. 4. Maicon 29. Paulinho 18. Paulinho Paula 10. Payet D. 77. Rayan Vitor 20. Sforza J. 5. Souza 12. Victor Luis
Coaches
Franco B.	Felipe Loureiro

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
17', 0 - 1, Vegetti P. ⚽, Rodriguez J. (A),
33', 1 - 1, Derik Lacerda ⚽,
43', 1 - 2, Vegetti P. ⚽, Mateus Carvalho (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Leandrinho ↓, Victor Luis ↑,
46', Hugo Moura ↓, Dominguez M. ↑,
59', Alex Teixeira ↓, Payet D. ↑,
62', Dominguez M. 🟨,
65', Denilson Alves ↓, Eliel ↑,
67', Coutinho ↓, Paulinho Paula ↑,
79', Jair ↓, Sforza J. ↑,
79', Railan ↓, Matheus Alexandre ↑,
79', Jadson ↓, Dudu ↑,
84', Clayson ↓, Souza D. ↑,
85', Max Alves ↓, Kauan Cristtyan ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B and 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

Cuiabá is Relegated to Serie B

Vasco is Qualified for Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage )

Two teams are in a poor body shape now.

Vasco could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

There will not play in Cuiabá: Andre Luis (Back Injury) Filipe Augusto (Injury) Jonathan Cafu (Injury)

There will not play in Vasco: Adson (Injury) David (Injury) Guilherme Estrella (Injury) Paulinho (Injury)

There are questionable in Cuiabá: Gustavo Sauer (Injury) Lucas Fernandes (Injury)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Cuiabá won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 1:5 (average 0.2:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Cuiabá won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:3 (average 0.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cuiabá EC
Brazilian Serie A
05.12.24	Fluminense - Cuiabá	1:0 ✺
30.11.24	Cuiabá - Bahia	1:2 ✺
23.11.24	Juventude - Cuiabá	1:1 ✺
20.11.24	Cuiabá - Flamengo	1:2 ✺
09.11.24	Botafogo RJ - Cuiabá	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 LLTLT
- Vasco da Gama
Brazilian Serie A
04.12.24	Vasco da Gama - Atlético Mineiro	2:0 ✺
30.11.24	Vasco da Gama - Atlético Goianiense	2:2 ✺
24.11.24	Corinthians - Vasco da Gama	3:1 ✺
21.11.24	Vasco da Gama - Internacional RS	0:1 ✺
09.11.24	Fortaleza - Vasco da Gama	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
24.10.24	Vasco da Gama - Cuiabá	1:0
02.11.23	Cuiabá - Vasco da Gama	0:2
26.06.23	Vasco da Gama - Cuiabá	1:0
Copa do Brasil
20.05.15	Vasco da Gama - Cuiabá	0:0
13.05.15	Cuiabá - Vasco da Gama	1:1

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