Match Info

Serie B - Round 1

Date: 4 April 2025, Friday

Location: Leonidas Sodre de Castro (Belem)

Referee: Ferreira J. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Paysandu		Athletico Paranaense

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.2	2.8	Watch
	2.37	3.2	2.75
	2.46	3.25	2.85
	2.47	3.21	2.86	Watch
	2.62	3.1	2.62
	2.59	3.2	2.69	Watch
	2.46	3.25	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.5 ↓ (3.03)	3.2 ↓ (3.26)	2.77 ↑ (2.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paysandu
37.3%

Draw
29.1%

Athletico Paranaense
33.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.8%

28.7%

40.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.4%

29.1%

40.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paysandu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Paysandu's performance.

Athletico Paranaense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Athletico Paranaense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paysandu than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Paysandu that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Athletico Paranaense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	14.3%	42.9%

Paysandu - Athletico Paranaense Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Paysandu will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Athletico PR will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Athletico PR (2.04) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletico PR (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Matheus Nogueira (G) 21. Bryan 27. Ramon Martinez 3. Quintana Y. 94. Patric Calmon 28. Leandro Vilela 96. Matheus Vargas 20. Marlon Douglas 77. Rossi 11. Nicolas (C) 17. Delvalle P.	1. Mycael (G) 18. Palacios H. 28. Habraao 3. Leo 6. Fernando 5. Felipinho 31. Raul 10. Zapelli B. 7. Velasco K. 27. Alan Kardec (C) 19. Luiz Fernando
Substitutes
8. Andre Lima 9. Benitez J. 24. Borasi B. 32. Cavalleri M. 15. Dudu Vieira 2. Edilson 10. Giovanni 31. Iago Hass (G) 4. Luan Freitas 30. Marcelinho 5. Novillo J. 16. Reverson	65. Arthur Dias 45. Belezi 98. Falcao 8. Giuliano 11. Isaac 57. Joao Cruz 61. Leo Derik 21. Leozinho 88. Patrick 70. Renan 23. Santos (G) 30. Tevis
Coaches
Luizinho Lopes	Mauricio Barbieri

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
18', Fernando 🟨,
33', 0 - 1, Zapelli B. ⚽, Luiz Fernando (A),
40', Leandro Vilela 🟨,
42', 1 - 1, Leandro Vilela ⚽, Rossi (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Matheus Vargas ↓, Andre Lima ↑,
56', Habraao 🟨,
62', Nicolas ↓, Benitez J. ↑,
62', Delvalle P. ↓, Borasi B. ↑,
64', Alan Kardec ↓, Renan ↑,
64', Velasco K. ↓, Isaac ↑,
65', Patric Calmon ↓, Reverson ↑,
72', 1 - 2, Renan ⚽,
75', Zapelli B. ↓, Patrick ↑,
76', Marlon Douglas ↓, Giovanni ↑,
81', Isaac 🟨,
85', Fernando ↓, Belezi ↑,
85', Felipinho ↓, Falcao ↑,
90+1', Renan 🟨,

Preview

Paysandu in the latest game got a series victories and it is in a perfect shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Athletico PR is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Athletico PR could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Paysandu have a series of home games.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

There will not play in Paysandu: Edinho (Injury)

There will not play in Athletico PR: Julimar (Knee Injury)

Last 2 head-to-head matches Paysandu won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:2 (average 0.5:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Paysandu won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paysandu PA
Brazilian Campeonato Paraense
01.04.25	Paysandu - Águia de Marabá	3:1 ✺
28.03.25	Paysandu - Capitão Poço	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa Verde
19.03.25	Paysandu - São Raimundo PR	3:0 ✺
12.03.25	São Raimundo PR - Paysandu	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paraense
02.03.25	Paysandu - Castanhal	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WWWTW
- Athletico Paranaense
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
19.03.25	Athletico Paranaense - Maringá	0:3 ✺
16.03.25	Maringá - Athletico Paranaense	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
13.03.25	Athletico Paranaense - Guarany de Bagé	3:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
08.03.25	Athletico Paranaense - Azuriz	3:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
25.02.25	Pouso Alegre - Athletico Paranaense	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa do Brasil
24.07.13	Athletico Paranaense - Paysandu	2:1
17.07.13	Paysandu - Athletico Paranaense	0:0

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