Match Info

NPL Victoria - Round 23

Date: 1 August 2026, Saturday

Location: George Andrews Reserve (Melbourne)


	Dandenong Thunder		Dandenong City

	1	X	2
				Watch
	4.33	4.00	1.63
	5.5	4.25	1.45
	6.74	5.66	1.35
	5.31	4.9	1.48	Watch
	6.25	5.5	1.33
	6.81	5.24	1.37	Watch
	5.8	4.3	1.44
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.82 ↑ (4.26)	4.84 ↑ (4.04)	1.44 ↓ (1.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dandenong Thunder
16%

Draw
19.2%

Dandenong City
64.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.6%

22.8%

55.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.3%

23.1%

56.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dandenong Thunder has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Dandenong Thunder's form might have worsened.

Dandenong City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Dandenong City's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dandenong Thunder than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Dandenong Thunder, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dandenong City than the current prediction. (-8.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Dandenong City, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Dandenong Thunder - Dandenong City Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (2.07) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
5', 0 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
86', 0 - 2, ⚽,
89', 0 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 13 in the zone Relegation and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dandenong Thunder won 3.

Recent form of Dandenong Thunder has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Dandenong City has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Dandenong City may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Dandenong City is seen as the favorite.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Dandenong Thunder won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 22:15. (average 1.7:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Dandenong Thunder won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:9. (average 1.4:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dandenong Thunder
Australian NPL Victoria
25.07.26	Dandenong Thunder - Altona Magic	0:2 ✺
17.07.26	Green Gully - Dandenong Thunder	3:1 ✺
11.07.26	Dandenong Thunder - Bentleigh Greens	2:1 ✺
05.07.26	South Melbourne - Dandenong Thunder	1:0 ✺
27.06.26	Dandenong Thunder - Hume City	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLWLL
- Dandenong City SC
Australian NPL Victoria
24.07.26	Green Gully - Dandenong City	0:0 ✺
17.07.26	Bentleigh Greens - Dandenong City	2:1 ✺
10.07.26	Dandenong City - South Melbourne	0:2 ✺
04.07.26	Hume City - Dandenong City	0:0 ✺
26.06.26	Dandenong City - Avondale	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 TLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Australian NPL Victoria
24.04.26	Dandenong City - Dandenong Thunder	0:1
30.08.25	Dandenong Thunder - Dandenong City	0:1
30.05.25	Dandenong City - Dandenong Thunder	1:2
22.02.25	Dandenong Thunder - Dandenong City	2:2
22.06.24	Dandenong Thunder - Dandenong City	1:0
15.03.24	Dandenong City - Dandenong Thunder	1:2
25.06.22	Dandenong City - Dandenong Thunder	1:3

Dandenong Thunder - Dandenong City: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide