Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Clausura - Round 11

Date: 19 October 2026, Monday 🏁 Finished

Location: Gran Parque Central (Montevideo) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	20:00	Disney+
Brazil	20:00	Disney+
Mexico	17:00	Disney+
Peru	18:00	Disney+
Uruguay	20:00	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Venezuela	19:00	Disney+


	Nacional Montevideo		Deportivo Maldonado

	1	X	2
	1.80	3.40	3.90	Watch
	1.82	3.40	3.90
	1.88	3.35	3.65
	1.86	3.71	4.35
	1.84	3.62	4.08	Watch
	1.78	3.65	4.40
	1.86	3.52	4.03	Watch
	1.86	3.50	3.90
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↓ (1.87)	3.52 ↓ (3.59)	4.03 ↑ (3.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional Montevideo
50.5%

Draw
26.4%

Deportivo Maldonado
23.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

50%

26%

24%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.7%

24.7%

22.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Deportivo Maldonado has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional Montevideo than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Maldonado than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Nacional Montevideo - Deportivo Maldonado Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Martin A. (G) 37. Rodriguez L. 4. Coates S. (C) 5. Calvo F. 15. Martirena Torres G. N. 23. Rodriguez L. 6. Boggio L. 21. Candido C. 39. Gonzalez L. 29. Correa T. 9. Gomez M.	1. Freitas A. (G) 2. Fuica N. 4. Ginzo J. M. 19. Tealde F. (C) 22. Ramos J. 8. Gonzalez M. 17. Ramirez S. 28. Cartagena S. 10. Noble Sequeira A. M. 14. Tabo C. 16. Cesar R.
Substitutes
13. Ancheta E. 40. Bianchi J. (G) 20. Botta R. 14. Martinez A. 31. Martinez R. 2. Rogel A. 8. Silva S. 11. Silvera M. 32. Viera T. 36. Zuculini B.	42. Fernandez J. 34. Forastiero N. (G) 30. Ibanez L. 11. Lopez G. 31. Marino F. 18. Mayada C. 29. Mozzone E. 5. Nunez L. 32. Petryk H. 27. Sosa G.
Coaches
Carreno D.	Di Noia G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
14', Rodriguez L. 🟨,
27', Candido C. 🟨,
35', 1 - 0, Calvo F. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
58', Rodriguez L. ↓, Silva S. ↑,
58', Candido C. ↓, Viera T. ↑,
68', Cartagena S. ↓, Mayada C. ↑,
70', Tabo C. 🟨,
73', Ramos J. 🟨,
78', 2 - 0, Boggio L. ⚽,
79', Gomez M. ↓, Martinez A. ↑,
79', Gonzalez L. ↓, Silvera M. ↑,
81', 3 - 0, Calvo F. ⚽,
84', Ginzo J. M. ↓, Petryk H. ↑,
84', Noble Sequeira A. M. ↓, Lopez G. ↑,
84', Ramos J. ↓, Ibanez L. ↑,
84', Ramirez S. ↓, Nunez L. ↑,
85', Silva S. 🟨,
86', Correa T. ↓, Zuculini B. ↑,
86', 3 - 1, Lopez G. ⚽,
90', Coates S. 🟨,
90', Gonzalez M. 🟨,
90+3', 3 - 2, Cesar R. ⚽,

Preview

A clash between two contenders competing at the top of the table (ranked 4th and 5th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 3.

Each of the two teams has built an impressive run of consecutive wins.

Nacional may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Nacional carries the favorite tag into this contest.

In the last 12 head-to-head meetings, Nacional has recorded 6 wins, 1 draw, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 22:18 (averaging 1.8:1.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Nacional against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 15:8 goals (averaging 2.5:1.3 per game).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Nacional	12	7	2	3	17:12	5	23
4	Maldonado	12	6	3	3	18:10	8	21

Last Results with these Odds

Nacional Montevideo - the odds 1.87 are the expected chance of winning is 49.99%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nacional Montevideo
Uruguay Copa
15.10.26	Nacional Montevideo - Rentistas	3:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
11.10.26	Central Español - Nacional Montevideo	0:1 ✺
05.10.26	Nacional Montevideo - Montevideo City Torque	2:0 ✺
26.09.26	Cerro Largo - Nacional Montevideo	0:2 ✺
20.09.26	Nacional Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WWWWW
- Deportivo Maldonado SAD
Uruguay Copa
14.10.26	Deportivo Maldonado - Albion Montevideo	4:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
09.10.26	Deportivo Maldonado - Liverpool Montevideo	1:1 ✺
03.10.26	Deportivo Maldonado - Central Español	3:0 ✺
26.09.26	Montevideo City Torque - Deportivo Maldonado	0:2 ✺
Uruguay Copa
23.09.26	Cerro - Deportivo Maldonado	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
31.05.26	Deportivo Maldonado - Nacional Montevideo	3:0
11.04.26	Deportivo Maldonado - Nacional Montevideo	4:2
Uruguayan Copa de la Liga AUF
13.01.26	Nacional Montevideo - Deportivo Maldonado	1:0 penalties
Uruguayan Primera Division
16.11.24	Nacional Montevideo - Deportivo Maldonado	5:2
20.05.24	Deportivo Maldonado - Nacional Montevideo	0:2
23.10.23	Nacional Montevideo - Deportivo Maldonado	1:3
17.06.23	Nacional Montevideo - Deportivo Maldonado	4:0

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