Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Clausura - Round 12

Date: 24 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel (Maldonado) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Burgos J. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	19:00	Disney+
Brazil	19:00	Disney+
Mexico	16:00	Disney+
Peru	17:00	Disney+
Uruguay	19:00	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Venezuela	18:00	Disney+


	Deportivo Maldonado		Danubio

	1	X	2
	1.80	3.20	4.00	Watch
	1.85	3.40	3.75
	1.94	3.30	3.50
	1.89	3.48	4.52
	1.87	3.52	4.09	Watch
	1.85	3.35	4.45
	1.88	3.34	4.18	Watch
	1.89	3.40	3.90
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↓ (2.02)	3.37 ↑ (3.3)	4.05 ↑ (3.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Maldonado
49.6%

Draw
27.5%

Danubio
22.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

46.2%

28.3%

25.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

26.8%

24.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Maldonado has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Danubio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Maldonado than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Danubio than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Deportivo Maldonado - Danubio Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Maldonado will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Freitas A. (G) 2. Fuica N. 4. Ginzo J. M. 19. Tealde F. 5. Nunez L. 17. Ramirez S. 28. Cartagena S. 20. Tormo S. 10. Noble Sequeira A. M. 14. Tabo C. 16. Cesar R.	1. Goicoechea M. (G) 4. Rinaldi M. 19. Brasil M. 3. Rodriguez G. 6. Sosa L. (C) 28. Femia E. 5. Millan J. 10. Peralta M. 14. Pereira B. 77. Tomatis B. 7. Cabrera E.
Substitutes
42. Fernandez J. 34. Forastiero N. (G) 15. Gonzalez S. 30. Ibanez L. 11. Lopez G. 31. Marino F. 29. Mozzone E. 32. Petryk H. 27. Sosa G. 23. Vila A.	25. Cabrera F. 27. Costantino I. 30. Fernandez S. 20. Ferreira M. 15. Figueroa E. 33. Garcia D. 32. Martinez K. (G) 8. Rodriguez S. 80. Tizon C. 2. Velazquez E.
Coaches
Di Noia G.	Rocco L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
18', 0 - 1, Pereira B. ⚽, Tomatis B. (A),
28', Pereira B. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Tormo S. ↓, Ibanez L. ↑,
46', 1 - 1, Ginzo J. M. ⚽,
60', Cartagena S. 🟨,
63', Millan J. 🟨,
70', Cabrera E. ↓, Ferreira M. ↑,
74', Ginzo J. M. ↓, Lopez G. ↑,
74', Ibanez L. ↓, Sosa G. ↑,
77', Pereira B. ↓, Figueroa E. ↑,
82', Nunez L. ↓, Fernandez J. ↑,
86', Millan J. ↓, Rodriguez S. ↑,
86', Peralta M. ↓, Tizon C. ↑,
86', Tomatis B. ↓, Costantino I. ↑,
90+4', 2 - 1, Cesar R. ⚽, Noble Sequeira A. M. (A),

Preview

This match features a clash between a top-table contender and a mid-table team (ranked 5th and 12th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Maldonado won 2.

Maldonado is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Performances by Danubio have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Maldonado carries the favorite tag into this contest.

In the last 11 head-to-head meetings, Maldonado has recorded 2 wins, 6 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 13:15 (averaging 1.2:1.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Maldonado against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with 9:7 goals (averaging 1.5:1.2 per game).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Maldonado	12	6	3	3	18:10	8	21
13	Danubio	12	2	4	6	6:13	-7	10

Last Results with these Odds

Deportivo Maldonado - the odds 2.02 are the expected chance of winning is 46.18%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Danubio - the odds 3.65 are the expected chance of winning is 25.56%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Maldonado SAD
Uruguayan Primera Division
19.10.26	Nacional Montevideo - Deportivo Maldonado	3:2 ✺
Uruguay Copa
14.10.26	Deportivo Maldonado - Albion Montevideo	4:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
09.10.26	Deportivo Maldonado - Liverpool Montevideo	1:1 ✺
03.10.26	Deportivo Maldonado - Central Español	3:0 ✺
26.09.26	Montevideo City Torque - Deportivo Maldonado	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 LWTWW
- Danubio FC
Uruguayan Primera Division
18.10.26	Danubio - Central Español	1:0 ✺
Uruguay Copa
15.10.26	Central Español - Danubio	0:6 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
09.10.26	Montevideo City Torque - Danubio	1:0 ✺
04.10.26	Danubio - Cerro Largo	2:1 ✺
27.09.26	Defensor Sporting - Danubio	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
18.05.26	Deportivo Maldonado - Danubio	3:1
19.04.26	Danubio - Deportivo Maldonado	1:1
02.12.24	Deportivo Maldonado - Danubio	3:1
03.06.24	Danubio - Deportivo Maldonado	1:1
06.11.23	Deportivo Maldonado - Danubio	1:2
25.03.23	Danubio - Deportivo Maldonado	4:0
07.08.22	Danubio - Deportivo Maldonado	0:0

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