Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Torneo Intermedio - Round 1

Date: 18 May 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel (Maldonado)

Referee: Heras H. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Venezuela	Disney+


	Deportivo Maldonado		Danubio

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.1	3.5	Watch
	1.98	3.15	3.7
	2.03	3.36	4.05
	2	3.3	3.83	Watch
	2	3.2	3.6
	2	3.27	3.78	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↓ (2.09)	3.23 ↑ (3.13)	3.74 ↑ (3.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Maldonado
46.5%

Draw
28.7%

Danubio
24.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.7%

29.9%

25.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.6%

30%

25.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Maldonado has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Danubio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Maldonado than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Danubio than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Deportivo Maldonado - Danubio Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Maldonado will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Freitas A. (G) 4. Ginzo J. M. 3. Menosse H. 19. Tealde F. (C) 22. Ramos J. 8. Gonzalez M. 17. Ramirez S. 14. Tabo C. 10. Noble Sequeira A. M. 21. Espindola M. 11. Lopez G.	1. Goicoechea M. (C) 40. Balatti F. 2. Velazquez E. 31. Cavanagh T. 6. Sosa L. 18. Mayada C. 16. Rossi I. 8. Rodriguez S. 10. Peralta M. 30. Fernandez S. 21. Azambuja N.
Substitutes
9. de Leon E. 42. Fernandez J. 33. Fuica N. 15. Gonzalez S. 7. Larrazabal G. 5. Nunez L. 12. Ortiz Ferreira V. F. (G) 32. Petryk H. 20. Tormo S. 23. Vila A.	7. Cabrera E. 28. Femia E. 20. Ferreira M. 33. Garcia D. 32. Martinez K. (G) 5. Millan J. 22. Montana A. 14. Pereira B. 3. Pereyra J. 17. Velazquez A.
Coaches
Di Noia G.	Ramos L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
2', Tabo C. 🟨,
6', 1 - 0, Ramirez S. ⚽,
25', Rossi I. 🟨,
30', 2 - 0, Tabo C. ⚽,
40', Gonzalez M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
52', Noble Sequeira A. M. 🟨,
58', Fernandez S. ↓, Ferreira M. ↑,
58', Rodriguez S. ↓, Cabrera E. ↑,
68', Tabo C. ↓, de Leon E. ↑,
68', Gonzalez M. ↓, Gonzalez S. ↑,
71', Tealde F. 🟨,
79', Lopez G. ↓, Larrazabal G. ↑,
79', Ginzo J. M. ↓, Petryk H. ↑,
79', Sosa L. ↓, Pereyra J. ↑,
81', 3 - 0, Larrazabal G. ⚽,
86', Espindola M. 🟨,
86', Espindola M. ↓, Vila A. ↑,
87', 3 - 1, Ferreira M. ⚽,
89', Velazquez E. 🟥,
90', Pereyra J. 🟨,
90+3', Tealde F. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Maldonado won 1.

Maldonado is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Danubio's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Danubio may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Maldonado will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Maldonado won 1 match, drew 6 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:14. (average 1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Maldonado won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:6. (average 1.2:1.2).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Maldonado	9	5	2	2	13:5	8	17
13	Danubio	9	1	4	4	4:10	-6	7

Last Results with these Odds

Deportivo Maldonado - the odds 2.09 are the expected chance of winning is 44.73%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Maldonado SAD
Uruguayan Primera Division
11.05.26	Deportivo Maldonado - Boston River	2:1 ✺
02.05.26	Cerro - Deportivo Maldonado	0:1 ✺
25.04.26	Deportivo Maldonado - Albion Montevideo	1:2 ✺
19.04.26	Danubio - Deportivo Maldonado	1:1 ✺
11.04.26	Deportivo Maldonado - Nacional Montevideo	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 WWLTW
- Danubio FC
Uruguayan Primera Division
09.05.26	Danubio - Albion Montevideo	0:1 ✺
02.05.26	Liverpool Montevideo - Danubio	3:0 ✺
25.04.26	Nacional Montevideo - Danubio	1:2 ✺
19.04.26	Danubio - Deportivo Maldonado	1:1 ✺
12.04.26	Central Español - Danubio	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 LLWTT

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
19.04.26	Danubio - Deportivo Maldonado	1:1
02.12.24	Deportivo Maldonado - Danubio	3:1
03.06.24	Danubio - Deportivo Maldonado	1:1
06.11.23	Deportivo Maldonado - Danubio	1:2
25.03.23	Danubio - Deportivo Maldonado	4:0
07.08.22	Danubio - Deportivo Maldonado	0:0
14.02.22	Deportivo Maldonado - Danubio	1:2

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