Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 5

Date: 14 May 2024, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello (Gobernador Julio A. Costa)

Referee: Machado B. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV
Brazil	ESPN 4


	Defensa y Justicia		Independiente Medellín

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.4	4.2	Watch
	1.93	3.3	4
	1.9	3.5	4	Watch
	1.98	3.49	4.09
	1.93	3.49	4.04
	1.83	3.3	3.9	Watch
	1.9	3.44	4.03	Watch
	1.88	3.35	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↑ (1.8)	3.41 ↑ (3.37)	4.03 ↓ (4.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Defensa y Justicia
49.2%

Draw
27.5%

Independiente Medellín
23.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.2%

27.4%

21.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.6%

26.5%

22.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Defensa y Justicia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Independiente Medellín has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Defensa y Justicia than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente Medellín than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	30%	30%

Defensa y Justicia - Independiente Medellín Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Defensa y Justicia will win (votes: 4 - 40%). Ind Medellín will win (votes: 3 - 30%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Defensa y Justicia: 9.6% – 70.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Fiermarin C. (G) 14. Cannavo E. 4. Tripichio N. 28. Aguilera E. 5. Gutierrez K. 16. Molinas A. 3. Soto A. 17. Alanis G. 33. Palavecino N. 24. Marco F. 29. Fernandez N.	25. Chaux E. (G) 28. Luis Orejuela 23. Torijano F. 24. Ortiz J. 17. Fory J. 5. Lima P. 31. Moreno D. 77. Jhon Vasquez 10. Monsalve M. 15. Alvarado J. 27. Leon Muniz B.
Substitutes
37. Blandi N. 23. Bologna E. (G) 20. Calderon E. 36. Echevarria F. 40. Gimenez U. 9. Godoy S. L. 30. Lopez K. 35. Schamine B. 31. Serrago T. 32. Sosa M. 41. Sosa Vivaldi F. E. 7. Zapata Y.	30. Arizala J. 34. Blanco I. (G) 2. Chaverra L. 12. Chunga J. (G) 16. Davila A. 8. Garcia M. 26. Graciano C. 20. Montano J. 19. Moreno Y. 29. Palacios J. 4. Palacios M. 14. Perlaza B.
Coaches
Vaccari J.	Arias A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
10', Leon Muniz B. 🟨,
22', 0 - 1, Leon Muniz B. ⚽, Alvarado J. (A),
33', Fiermarin C. 🟨,
41', Palavecino N. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Leon Muniz B. ↓, Garcia M. ↑,
46', Palavecino N. ↓, Echevarria F. ↑,
52', Soto A. 🟨,
52', Luis Orejuela 🟨,
61', Monsalve M. ↓, Moreno Y. ↑,
61', Jhon Vasquez ↓, Perlaza B. ↑,
61', Gutierrez K. ↓, Lopez K. ↑,
61', Molinas A. ↓, Zapata Y. ↑,
68', 1 - 1, Ortiz J. (Own goal),
69', Ortiz J. 🟨,
71', Marco F. ↓, Calderon E. ↑,
73', Lima P. 🟨,
77', Moreno D. ↓, Chaverra L. ↑,
79', Fory J. 🟨,
87', Alanis G. ↓, Blandi N. ↑,
87', Luis Orejuela ↓, Graciano C. ↑,
89', Echevarria F. 🟨,

Preview

Defensa y Justicia is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Independiente Medellín is in a marvelous shape and in addition in the last match got series victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Independiente Medellín could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Defensa y Justicia have a series of guest games.

In this match Defensa y Justicia is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Defensa y Justicia won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Defensa y Justicia
Argentinian Liga Profesional
11.05.24	Huracán Buenos Aires - Defensa y Justicia	3:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
07.05.24	Always Ready - Defensa y Justicia	3:0 ✺
25.04.24	Independiente Medellín - Defensa y Justicia	2:1 ✺
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
20.04.24	Argentinos Juniors - Defensa y Justicia	2:1 penalties ✺
16.04.24	Defensa y Justicia - Newells Old Boys	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LLLLW
- Independiente Medellín
Copa Sudamericana
07.05.24	Universidad César Vallejo - Independiente Medellín	1:5 ✺
Colombian Primera A
28.04.24	Envigado - Independiente Medellín	0:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
25.04.24	Independiente Medellín - Defensa y Justicia	2:1 ✺
Colombian Primera A
21.04.24	Independiente Medellín - Atlético Nacional	2:2 ✺
18.04.24	Patriotas - Independiente Medellín	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
25.04.24	Independiente Medellín - Defensa y Justicia	2:1

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