Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 3

Date: 25 April 2024, Thursday

Location: Estadio Atanasio Girardot (Medellín)

Referee: Sampaio W. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV
Australia	beIN Sports
Brazil	ESPN 4


	Independiente Medellín		Defensa y Justicia

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.2	3.4	Watch
	2.1	3.2	3.5
	2.2	3.25	3.25	Watch
	2.17	3.31	3.5
	2.17	3.31	3.49
	2	3.25	3.4	Watch
	2.14	3.22	3.48	Watch
	2.17	3.1	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↓ (2.34)	3.23 ↓ (3.25)	3.43 ↑ (2.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente Medellín
43.6%

Draw
29%

Defensa y Justicia
27.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.8%

28.7%

31.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.2%

27.6%

32.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente Medellín has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Defensa y Justicia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente Medellín than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Independiente Medellín that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Defensa y Justicia than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Defensa y Justicia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	50%	10%

Independiente Medellín - Defensa y Justicia Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Ind Medellín will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Defensa y Justicia will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 55.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Chaux E. (G) 28. Luis Orejuela 23. Torijano F. 24. Ortiz J. 17. Fory J. 15. Alvarado J. 5. Lima P. 10. Monsalve M. 31. Moreno D. 77. Jhon Vasquez 27. Leon Muniz B.	22. Fiermarin C. (G) 4. Tripichio N. (C) 6. Burgos E. 21. Ramos S. 26. Caceres D. 8. Lopez J. 3. Soto A. 17. Alanis G. 10. Bogarin R. 27. Herrera L. 9. Godoy S. L.
Substitutes
30. Arizala J. 34. Blanco I. (G) 16. Davila A. 8. Garcia M. 26. Graciano C. 20. Montano J. 19. Moreno Y. 29. Palacios J. 14. Perlaza B. 21. Santacruz S.	28. Aguilera E. 23. Bologna E. (G) 14. Cannavo E. 36. Echevarria F. 29. Fernandez N. 30. Lopez K. 24. Marco F. 16. Molinas A. 33. Palavecino N. 18. Romero F. 35. Schamine B. 7. Zapata Y.
Coaches
Arias A.	Vaccari J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
1', 1 - 0, Leon Muniz B. ⚽, Jhon Vasquez (A),
8', Lopez J. 🟨,
10', Luis Orejuela 🟨,
22', 2 - 0, Monsalve M. ⚽, Leon Muniz B. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Fory J. ↓, Graciano C. ↑,
60', Godoy S. L. ↓, Lopez K. ↑,
60', Alanis G. ↓, Palavecino N. ↑,
60', Lopez J. ↓, Molinas A. ↑,
62', Herrera L. 🟨,
63', Jhon Vasquez ↓, Garcia M. ↑,
63', Leon Muniz B. ↓, Moreno Y. ↑,
72', Moreno D. 🟨,
72', Burgos E. 🟨,
73', Soto A. ↓, Fernandez N. ↑,
76', 2 - 1, Palavecino N. ⚽, Herrera L. (A),
77', Monsalve M. 🟨,
82', Monsalve M. ↓, Arizala J. ↑,
82', Moreno D. ↓, Perlaza B. ↑,
82', Herrera L. ↓, Zapata Y. ↑,
90+2', Bogarin R. 🟨,

Preview

At the moment teams are feeling good and ready to play.

Independiente Medellín could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Independiente Medellín will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente Medellín
Colombian Primera A
21.04.24	Independiente Medellín - Atlético Nacional	2:2 ✺
18.04.24	Patriotas - Independiente Medellín	2:3 ✺
14.04.24	Independiente Medellín - Atlético Bucaramanga	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
10.04.24	Independiente Medellín - Universidad César Vallejo	4:2 ✺
Colombian Primera A
07.04.24	Jaguares de Córdoba - Independiente Medellín	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 TWWWT
- Defensa y Justicia
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
20.04.24	Argentinos Juniors - Defensa y Justicia	2:1 penalties ✺
16.04.24	Defensa y Justicia - Newells Old Boys	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
10.04.24	Defensa y Justicia - Always Ready	1:1 ✺
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
06.04.24	San Lorenzo - Defensa y Justicia	0:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
02.04.24	Universidad César Vallejo - Defensa y Justicia	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 LWTWW

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