Match Info

Liga Profesional - Apertura - Round 8

Date: 1 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello (Gobernador Julio A. Costa)

Referee: Lobo Medina L. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN Premium
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+, Fanatiz
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+
World	TyC Sports Internacional


	Defensa y Justicia		Lanús

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.25	3.7	Watch
	2.2	3	3.65	Watch
	2.21	3.05	3.99
	2.11	3.12	3.87	Watch
	2.1	3	3.6
	2.09	3.26	3.9	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↓ (3.22)	3.11 ↑ (3.09)	3.79 ↑ (2.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Defensa y Justicia
44.4%

Draw
30.5%

Lanús
25.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.4%

30.6%

40.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.3%

31.8%

41.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Defensa y Justicia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Defensa y Justicia's performance.

Lanús has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lanús might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Defensa y Justicia than the current prediction. (-16.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Defensa y Justicia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lanús than the current prediction. (+16.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lanús could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
31.6%	63.2%	5.3%

Defensa y Justicia - Lanús Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Defensa y Justicia will win (votes: 6 - 33.3%). Lanús will win (votes: 1 - 5.6%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 61.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 38.6% – 83.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Defensa y Justicia (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 5 - 83.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Defensa y Justicia (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Defensa y Justicia (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Tie (votes: 5 - 71.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Fiermarin C. (G) 33. Souto L. 6. Amor E. 21. Martinez D. 27. Pereyra E. 11. Banega E. 15. Sosa S. 10. Molinas A. 20. Botta R. 17. Hausch A. 24. Gutierrez J.	1. Petroli F. (G) 3. Morgantini N. (C) 4. Perez G. 35. De Jesus R. 2. Romero L. 5. Pena Biafore F. 27. Sanchez F. 16. Sepulveda M. 8. Watson F. N. 9. Bou W. 25. Aquino D.
Substitutes
23. Aguiar M. 25. Altamira F. 36. Amade L. (G) 19. Barbona D. 26. Caceres D. 29. Fernandez D. 30. Fernandez D. 55. Lopez J. 28. Loza V. 2. Lucero S. 32. Roselli N.	77. Besozzi L. 20. Cabrera B. 13. Canale Dominguez J. 23. Carrera R. 19. Castillo R. 37. De Martis T. 33. Guidara T. 24. Izquierdoz C. 26. Losada N. (G) 6. Marcich S. 17. Medina A. 11. Salvio E.
Coaches
Soso M.	Pellegrino M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
33', 1 - 0, Amor E. ⚽, Molinas A. (A),
45+1', 1 - 1, Bou W. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
58', Aquino D. ↓, Salvio E. ↑,
65', Martinez D. 🟨,
67', Sepulveda M. 🟨,
68', Botta R. ↓, Aguiar M. ↑,
68', Hausch A. ↓, Altamira F. ↑,
70', Bou W. ↓, Castillo R. ↑,
70', Sepulveda M. ↓, Besozzi L. ↑,
79', Banega E. ↓, Barbona D. ↑,
79', Sanchez F. ↓, Carrera R. ↑,
80', Romero L. ↓, Marcich S. ↑,
90', Pereyra E. ↓, Lucero S. ↑,
90+1', Carrera R. 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Defensa y Justicia won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Lanús may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Defensa y Justicia won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 23:17. (average 1.4:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Defensa y Justicia won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:9. (average 1.6:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Lanús - the odds 2.36 are the expected chance of winning is 40.05%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Defensa y Justicia
Argentinian Liga Profesional
24.02.26	Platense - Defensa y Justicia	0:0 ✺
20.02.26	Defensa y Justicia - Belgrano	1:1 ✺
13.02.26	Defensa y Justicia - Vélez Sársfield	1:1 ✺
07.02.26	Newells Old Boys - Defensa y Justicia	2:3 ✺
02.02.26	Defensa y Justicia - Estudiantes La Plata	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 TTTWT
- CA Lanús
Recopa Sudamericana
26.02.26	Flamengo - Lanús	2:3 ET ✺
19.02.26	Lanús - Flamengo	1:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
13.02.26	Independiente - Lanús	2:0 ✺
09.02.26	Lanús - Talleres de Córdoba	1:1 ✺
03.02.26	Instituto Córdoba - Lanús	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 26.3 WWLTT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
24.11.24	Lanús - Defensa y Justicia	0:0
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
03.03.24	Defensa y Justicia - Lanús	0:4
07.10.23	Lanús - Defensa y Justicia	0:2
Argentinian Liga Profesional
09.07.23	Defensa y Justicia - Lanús	2:2
10.06.22	Lanús - Defensa y Justicia	1:1
12.12.21	Defensa y Justicia - Lanús	2:1
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
20.02.21	Lanús - Defensa y Justicia	2:1

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