Match Info

Date: 4 May 2021, Tuesday


	Defensa y Justicia		Palmeiras

	1	X	2
	5.75	3.8	1.6	Watch
	6	3.5	1.62
	5.75	3.55	1.62	Watch
	5.4	3.6	1.62
	6.19	3.79	1.6
	6	3.6	1.6
	5.85	4.05	1.56
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.85 ↑ (2.9)	3.7 ↑ (3.18)	1.6 ↓ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Defensa y Justicia
16.1%

Draw
25.4%

Palmeiras
58.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.6%

29.7%

37.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.9%

21.8%

51.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Defensa y Justicia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-16.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Defensa y Justicia's form might have worsened.

Palmeiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+20.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Palmeiras's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Defensa y Justicia than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Defensa y Justicia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Palmeiras, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
6.8%	4.9%	88.3%

Defensa y Justicia - Palmeiras Predictions

Users Predictions: 162 users predict this event. Defensa y Justicia will win (votes: 11 - 6.8%). Palmeiras will win (votes: 143 - 88.3%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 4.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Palmeiras: 83.4% – 93.2%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Defensa y Justicia is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Palmeiras is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Palmeiras could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Palmeiras is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Defensa y Justicia won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Defensa y Justicia won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Defensa y Justicia
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
02.05.21	Defensa y Justicia - Unión Santa Fe	0:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
28.04.21	Defensa y Justicia - Universitario de Deportes	3:0 ✺
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
25.04.21	Defensa y Justicia - Arsenal Sarandí	0:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
21.04.21	Independiente del Valle - Defensa y Justicia	1:1 ✺
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
18.04.21	Independiente - Defensa y Justicia	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LWLTL
- Palmeiras
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
02.05.21	Santo André - Palmeiras	0:1 ✺
29.04.21	Palmeiras - Internacional de Limeira	0:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
27.04.21	Palmeiras - Independiente del Valle	5:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
25.04.21	Palmeiras - Mirassol	1:2 ✺
23.04.21	Guarani - Palmeiras	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Recopa Sudamericana
14.04.21	Palmeiras - Defensa y Justicia	1:3 penalties
07.04.21	Defensa y Justicia - Palmeiras	1:2

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