Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 5

Date: 8 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Luis Franzini (Montevideo)

Referee: Matonte Cabrera A. M. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Defensor Sporting		Central Español

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.1	3.8	Watch
	1.95	3.15	3.8
	2	3.15	4.44
	1.91	3.37	4.09	Watch
	2	2.9	4
	1.98	3.22	3.94	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↓ (1.98)	3.15 ↓ (3.23)	4.01 ↑ (3.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Defensor Sporting
47.4%

Draw
29.5%

Central Español
23.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.2%

28.9%

23.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

28%

23.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Defensor Sporting has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Central Español has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Defensor Sporting than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Central Español than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
68.7%	18.7%	12.5%

Defensor Sporting - Central Español Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Defensor Sporting (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Users Predictions: Defensor Sporting will win (11 of 14 users predict this - 78.57%).
Confidence interval (95%): 57.08% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Dawson K. (G) 11. Agazzi L. 3. De los Santos G. (C) 20. Caballero M. 15. Frugone A. 10. Biscayzacu X. 24. de los Santos L. 6. Amaro M. 97. Goicochea Del Carpio J. P. 31. Medina N. 26. Montenegro B.	39. Rodolfo (G) 17. Fernandez L. 2. Rodriguez I. 6. Urrutia M. 26. Cesar Nunes 14. Gandolfo G. 21. Pino L. 4. Montiel M. 28. Campos N. 27. Sosa F. 9. Tarragona R.
Substitutes
33. Bruschi S. 27. Juan Jorge 7. Lozano B. 9. Machado A. 1. Machado L. (G) 28. Navarro L. 4. Rodriguez G. 14. Sorondo F. 22. Torterolo A. 8. Wunsch N.	22. Aramburu E. 15. Cantera M. 11. Gandulfo L. 23. Gonella I. 1. Marquez E. (G) 25. Milan F. 10. Muniz R. 7. Munoz F. 20. Vera D.
Coaches
Cuello R.	de Ambrosio P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
34', Medina N. 🟨,
43', Urrutia M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Campos N. ↓, Muniz R. ↑,
55', Medina N. ↓, Lozano B. ↑,
67', Amaro M. 🟨,
68', Goicochea Del Carpio J. P. ↓, Torterolo A. ↑,
74', Sosa F. ↓, Gonella I. ↑,
74', Tarragona R. ↓, Vera D. ↑,
75', Biscayzacu X. ↓, Wunsch N. ↑,
75', De los Santos G. ↓, Machado A. ↑,
83', Montiel M. ↓, Munoz F. ↑,

Preview

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Central Español may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Defensor Sporting has had a series of away games.

In this match, Defensor Sporting is a strong favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Defensor Sporting won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 9:3. (average 1.8:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Defensor Sporting won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:1. (average 2.7:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Defensor Sporting
Copa Sudamericana
03.03.26	Montevideo City Torque - Defensor Sporting	1:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
26.02.26	Montevideo City Torque - Defensor Sporting	1:0 ✺
20.02.26	Defensor Sporting - Cerro Largo	1:0 ✺
13.02.26	Liverpool Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	1:2 ✺
06.02.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Defensor Sporting	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 LLWWT
- Central Español
Uruguayan Primera Division
28.02.26	Central Español - Montevideo Wanderers	0:1 ✺
22.02.26	Juventud de Las Piedras - Central Español	0:1 ✺
15.02.26	Central Español - Peñarol de Montevideo	2:1 ✺
07.02.26	Progreso - Central Español	0:3 ✺
Uruguayan Copa de la Liga AUF
12.01.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Central Español	1:0 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 30.4 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguay Copa
02.10.25	Defensor Sporting - Central Español	2:0
Uruguayan Segunda Division
04.10.21	Central Español - Defensor Sporting	1:0
25.06.21	Defensor Sporting - Central Español	4:0
Uruguayan Primera Division
21.04.13	Defensor Sporting - Central Español	2:1
28.10.12	Central Español - Defensor Sporting	1:1

Upcoming Matches