Match Info

Date: 10 September 2020, Thursday 🏁 Finished


	Defensor Sporting		Nacional

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.4	2	Watch
	3.2	3.5	2	Watch
	3.2	3.4	1.95
	3.15	3.35	2.07
	3.4	3.4	2
	3.56	3.22	2.09
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.27 ↓ (3.4)	3.38 ↓ (3.59)	2.02 ↑ (1.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Defensor Sporting
27.9%

Draw
27%

Nacional
45.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

27%

25.6%

47.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.3%

18.3%

62.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Defensor Sporting has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Defensor Sporting than the current prediction. (-8.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Defensor Sporting that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (+17.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Nacional could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Defensor Sporting - Nacional Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Recent matches Defensor Sporting is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Nacional is in a marvelous shape and in addition in the last match got series victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Defensor Sporting could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Nacional will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Defensor Sporting won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Defensor Sporting won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Defensor Sporting
Uruguayan Primera Division
06.09.20	Danubio - Defensor Sporting	0:0 ✺
30.08.20	Liverpool Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	1:2 ✺
27.08.20	Defensor Sporting - Cerro	1:1 ✺
23.08.20	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	5:0 ✺
19.08.20	Defensor Sporting - Progreso	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.7 TWTLW
- Atletico Nacional
Uruguayan Primera Division
06.09.20	Nacional - Cerro	5:1 ✺
29.08.20	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Nacional	1:2 ✺
26.08.20	Nacional - Progreso	2:1 ✺
23.08.20	Plaza Colonia - Nacional	0:0 ✺
20.08.20	Nacional - Montevideo City Torque	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
21.11.19	Defensor Sporting - Nacional	2:1
13.07.19	Nacional - Defensor Sporting	1:2
19.05.19	Nacional - Defensor Sporting	1:0

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Defensor Sporting
Uruguayan Primera Division
01.11.26	Progreso - Defensor Sporting	✺
- Atletico Nacional
Liga Portugal
01.11.26	Arouca - Nacional	✺

Defensor Sporting - Nacional