Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 13

Date: 27 April 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio Luis Franzini (Montevideo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Defensor Sporting		Progreso

	1	X	2
	1.85	3	4	Watch
	1.9	3.25	3.75
	1.9	3.2	3.95
	1.91	3.47	4.44
	1.88	3.45	4.15	Watch
	1.91	3.25	3.9
	1.9	3.34	4.09	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↑ (1.72)	3.28 ↑ (3.13)	4.04 ↓ (4.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Defensor Sporting
48.9%

Draw
28.2%

Progreso
22.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.5%

28.8%

18.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.2%

27.9%

18.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Defensor Sporting has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

Progreso has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Defensor Sporting than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Defensor Sporting, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Progreso than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	33.3%	33.3%

Defensor Sporting - Progreso Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Defensor Sporting will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Progreso will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Dawson K. (G) 11. Agazzi L. 20. Caballero M. 14. Sorondo F. 15. Frugone A. 5. Barrios G. 6. Amaro M. 77. Castro F. 97. Goicochea Del Carpio J. P. 9. Machado A. 26. Montenegro B.	1. Mehring A. (G) 16. Trasante G. 3. Garcia F. 13. Carroso H. 14. Kidd F. 5. Pinheiro A. 8. Colombino A. 11. Lopez N. 17. De Leon F. 29. Fernandez N. 23. Copelotti M.
Substitutes
33. Bruschi S. 30. Cuello E. 19. Diaz 7. Lozano B. 31. Medina N. 4. Rodriguez G. 17. Rodriguez V. 23. Simone B. (G) 22. Torterolo A. 8. Wunsch N.	30. Codagnone A. 25. Dos Santos J. 7. Fernandez F. 10. Lemmo I. 15. Martin M. 33. Requena A. (G) 21. Rivero J. 93. Sanchez D. 18. Silva G. 24. Viera S.
Coaches
Cuello R.	Silva T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
13', Sorondo F. 🟨,
25', Garcia F. 🟨,
31', Goicochea Del Carpio J. P. 🟨,
34', Pinheiro A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Kidd F. ↓, Martin M. ↑,
46', Goicochea Del Carpio J. P. ↓, Torterolo A. ↑,
46', Sorondo F. ↓, Rodriguez V. ↑,
58', Copelotti M. 🟨,
60', De Leon F. ↓, Dos Santos J. ↑,
65', 🟨,
65', Castro F. ↓, Medina N. ↑,
70', Trasante G. 🟨,
73', Barrios G. ↓, Wunsch N. ↑,
73', Medina N. ↓, Lozano B. ↑,
75', Copelotti M. ↓, Sanchez D. ↑,
76', Lopez N. ↓, Viera S. ↑,
77', Lozano B. 🟨,
83', Fernandez N. ↓, Rivero J. ↑,
85', Silva T. 🟥,
86', Machado A. 🟨,
90', Dos Santos J. 🟨,
90+1', 🟨,
90+8', 1 - 0, Wunsch N. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Defensor Sporting won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, Defensor Sporting is the team to beat.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Defensor Sporting won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 33:23. (average 1.8:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Defensor Sporting won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 14:12. (average 1.4:1.2).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Progreso	9	4	0	5	9:12	-3	12

Last Results with these Odds

Defensor Sporting - the odds 1.72 are the expected chance of winning is 52.45%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Defensor Sporting
Uruguayan Primera Division
18.04.26	Racing Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	1:1 ✺
11.04.26	Defensor Sporting - Boston River	2:0 ✺
05.04.26	Cerro - Defensor Sporting	1:0 ✺
31.03.26	Defensor Sporting - Albion Montevideo	1:1 ✺
26.03.26	Danubio - Defensor Sporting	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 TWLTT
- CA Progreso
Uruguayan Primera Division
18.04.26	Progreso - Montevideo Wanderers	2:1 ✺
12.04.26	Juventud de Las Piedras - Progreso	1:0 ✺
04.04.26	Progreso - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:2 ✺
31.03.26	Progreso - Liverpool Montevideo	3:3 ✺
26.03.26	Racing Montevideo - Progreso	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 WLLTT

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Copa de la Liga AUF
11.01.26	Defensor Sporting - Progreso	0:1 penalties
Uruguayan Primera Division
19.10.25	Progreso - Defensor Sporting	2:3
20.04.25	Defensor Sporting - Progreso	1:2
13.11.24	Defensor Sporting - Progreso	3:0
15.06.24	Defensor Sporting - Progreso	1:1
12.05.24	Progreso - Defensor Sporting	1:4
Uruguay Copa
03.11.22	Defensor Sporting - Progreso	3:1

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